Zhong Honglin1; Liang Zhuoran2; Ficsher Gunther3; Tian Zhan4; Ji Yinghao4; Sun Laixiang1; Xu Xinliang5; Fan Dongli4
Source Publicationjournalofgeographicalsciences
AbstractRapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change. The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security. In this study, based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in 2011-2040 (2020s), 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s), we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981-2010 and the future climatology of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The key modelling tool - the AEZ model - was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin. Our simulations revealed that: (1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time; (2) in the middle of this century (2050s), total rapeseed production would increase significantly; (3) the average production potential increase in the 2050s for the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939, 1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively; (4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi, central and eastern Hubei, northern Hunan, central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.
Funding Project[National Natural Science Foundation of China] ; [China's National Science & Technology Pillar Program]
Document Type期刊论文
2.Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau
3.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhong Honglin,Liang Zhuoran,Ficsher Gunther,et al. changesinproductionpotentialsofrapeseedintheyangtzeriverbasinofchinaunderclimatechangeamultimodelensembleapproach[J]. journalofgeographicalsciences,2018,28(11):1700.
APA Zhong Honglin.,Liang Zhuoran.,Ficsher Gunther.,Tian Zhan.,Ji Yinghao.,...&Fan Dongli.(2018).changesinproductionpotentialsofrapeseedintheyangtzeriverbasinofchinaunderclimatechangeamultimodelensembleapproach.journalofgeographicalsciences,28(11),1700.
MLA Zhong Honglin,et al."changesinproductionpotentialsofrapeseedintheyangtzeriverbasinofchinaunderclimatechangeamultimodelensembleapproach".journalofgeographicalsciences 28.11(2018):1700.
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