Liu Haimeng1; Fang Chuanglin1; Miao Yi2; Ma Haitao1; Zhang Qiang1; Zhou Qiang1
Source Publicationjournalofgeographicalsciences
AbstractThis paper uses data for the period 1950-2050 compiled by the United Nations Population Division together with methods including spatial autocorrelation analysis, hie- rarchical cluster analysis and the standard deviational ellipse, to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the 75 countries located along the routes of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, to identify future popula- tion growth and urbanization hotspots. The results reveal the following: First, in 2015, the majority of Belt and Road countries in Europe, South Asia and Southeast Asia had high population densities, whereas most countries in Central Asia, North Africa and West Asia, as well as Russia and Mongolia, had low population densities; the majority of countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa had rapid population growth, whereas many countries in Europe had negative population growth; and five Belt and Road countries are in the initial stage of urbanization, 44 countries are in the acceleration stage of urbanization, and 26 are in the terminal stage of urbanization. Second, in the century from 1950 to 2050, the mean center of the study area's population is consistently located in the border region between India and China. Prior to 2000, the trajectory of the mean center was from northwest to southeast, but from 2000 it is on a southward trajectory, as the population of the study area becomes more concentrated. Future population growth hotspots are predicted to be in South Asia, West Asia and Southeast Asia, and hotspot countries for the period 2015-2030 include India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia, though China will move into nega- tive population growth after 2030. Third, the overall urban population of Belt and Road coun- tries increased from 22% in 1950 to 49% in 2015, and it is expected to gradually catch up with the world average, reaching 64% in 2050. The different levels of urbanization in different countries display significant spatial dependency, and in the hundred-year period under con-sideration, this dependency increases before eventually weakening. Fourth, between 2015 and 2030, urban population hotspots will include Thailand, China, Laos and Albania, while Kuwait, Cyprus, Qatar and Estonia will be urban "coldspots." Fifth, there were 293 cities with populations over 1 million located along the Belt and Road in 2015, but that number Js ex- pected to increase to 377 by 2030. Of those, 43 will be in China, with many of the others located in India, Indonesia and the eastern Mediterranean.
Document Type期刊论文
First Author Affilication中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu Haimeng,Fang Chuanglin,Miao Yi,et al. spatiotemporalevolutionofpopulationandurbanizationinthecountriesalongthebeltandroad19502050[J]. journalofgeographicalsciences,2018,028(007):919.
APA Liu Haimeng,Fang Chuanglin,Miao Yi,Ma Haitao,Zhang Qiang,&Zhou Qiang.(2018).spatiotemporalevolutionofpopulationandurbanizationinthecountriesalongthebeltandroad19502050.journalofgeographicalsciences,028(007),919.
MLA Liu Haimeng,et al."spatiotemporalevolutionofpopulationandurbanizationinthecountriesalongthebeltandroad19502050".journalofgeographicalsciences 028.007(2018):919.
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