KMS Institute Of Geographic Sciences And Natural Resources Research,CAS
| Modeling crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency in wheat and maize production systems under future climate change | |
| Liang, Shuo1,2; Zhang, Xubo1; Sun, Nan2; Li, Yuefen3; Xu, Minggang2; Wu, Lianhai4 | |
| 2019-09-01 | |
| Source Publication | NUTRIENT CYCLING IN AGROECOSYSTEMS
 |
| ISSN | 1385-1314 |
| Volume | 115Issue:1Pages:117-136 |
| Corresponding Author | Zhang, Xubo(zhangxb@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Sun, Nan(sunnan@caas.cn) |
| Abstract | In the face of global climate change, changes in nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) have not been widely considered to affect agricultural productivity. A modeling study was conducted to assess the impacts of future climates on crop yields and NUE in two wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) rotation systems and one continuous maize system in northern China. Specifically, the process-based SPACSYS model was used to predict crop yields and NUE by 2100, under four climate scenarios (Baseline, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The model was validated using data from three long-term experiments, each of which included four fertilization practices typical of the regions: non-fertilizer, combined mineral N, phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) (NPK), NPK plus manure and NPK plus straw. Validation showed SPACSYS well-simulated crop yields and N uptake (R-2: 0.41-0.96; RMSE: 6-18%; and EF: 0.41-0.93). Under future climate change, the model predicted changes in maize yield by - 30.69% and 5.98% in northwestern and northeastern China, respectively, and wheat yield by - 16.37% in northwestern China. Future climates would cause greater NUE reductions in the northwest (wheat: 42.79%; maize: 33.73%) than in the northeast (maize: 3.97%) with smaller decreases in crop N uptake and N loss. Furthermore, manure application had higher crop NUEs (wheat: 6.66-31.27%; maize: 23.82-68.19%) and N uptakes than other treatments under future climate change. The results demonstrated the risks of future climate changes on crop yield and NUE in the study regions and can also help target fertilization practices for effectively mitigating climate change. |
| Keyword | Climate change Yield Nitrogen use efficiency SPACSYS Crop rotation Northeastern and northwestern China |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10705-019-10013-4 |
| WOS Keyword | SOIL ORGANIC-MATTER ; CO2 FERTILIZATION ; REGIONAL-SCALE ; CHINA ; CARBON ; INCREASE ; GROWTH ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; SPACSYS |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| Funding Project | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFC0503805] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701333] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41620104006] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Non-profit National Research Institute[Y2017LM06] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Non-profit National Research Institute[BBS/E/C/000I0320] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Non-profit National Research Institute[BBS/E/C/000I0330] |
| Funding Organization | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Non-profit National Research Institute |
| WOS Research Area | Agriculture |
| WOS Subject | Soil Science |
| WOS ID | WOS:000480817900007 |
| Publisher | SPRINGER |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/68844 |
| Collection | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| Corresponding Author | Zhang, Xubo; Sun, Nan |
| Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Natl Engn Lab Improving Qual Arable Land, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 3.Jilin Univ, Coll Earth Sci, Changchun 130061, Jilin, Peoples R China 4.Rothamsted Res, Sustainable Agr Syst, Okehampton EX20 2SB, Devon, England |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Liang, Shuo,Zhang, Xubo,Sun, Nan,et al. Modeling crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency in wheat and maize production systems under future climate change[J]. NUTRIENT CYCLING IN AGROECOSYSTEMS,2019,115(1):117-136. |
| APA | Liang, Shuo,Zhang, Xubo,Sun, Nan,Li, Yuefen,Xu, Minggang,&Wu, Lianhai.(2019).Modeling crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency in wheat and maize production systems under future climate change.NUTRIENT CYCLING IN AGROECOSYSTEMS,115(1),117-136. |
| MLA | Liang, Shuo,et al."Modeling crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency in wheat and maize production systems under future climate change".NUTRIENT CYCLING IN AGROECOSYSTEMS 115.1(2019):117-136. |
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