IGSNRR OpenIR
Modeling crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency in wheat and maize production systems under future climate change
Liang, Shuo1,2; Zhang, Xubo1; Sun, Nan2; Li, Yuefen3; Xu, Minggang2; Wu, Lianhai4
2019-09-01
Source PublicationNUTRIENT CYCLING IN AGROECOSYSTEMS
ISSN1385-1314
Volume115Issue:1Pages:117-136
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Xubo(zhangxb@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Sun, Nan(sunnan@caas.cn)
AbstractIn the face of global climate change, changes in nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) have not been widely considered to affect agricultural productivity. A modeling study was conducted to assess the impacts of future climates on crop yields and NUE in two wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) rotation systems and one continuous maize system in northern China. Specifically, the process-based SPACSYS model was used to predict crop yields and NUE by 2100, under four climate scenarios (Baseline, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The model was validated using data from three long-term experiments, each of which included four fertilization practices typical of the regions: non-fertilizer, combined mineral N, phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) (NPK), NPK plus manure and NPK plus straw. Validation showed SPACSYS well-simulated crop yields and N uptake (R-2: 0.41-0.96; RMSE: 6-18%; and EF: 0.41-0.93). Under future climate change, the model predicted changes in maize yield by - 30.69% and 5.98% in northwestern and northeastern China, respectively, and wheat yield by - 16.37% in northwestern China. Future climates would cause greater NUE reductions in the northwest (wheat: 42.79%; maize: 33.73%) than in the northeast (maize: 3.97%) with smaller decreases in crop N uptake and N loss. Furthermore, manure application had higher crop NUEs (wheat: 6.66-31.27%; maize: 23.82-68.19%) and N uptakes than other treatments under future climate change. The results demonstrated the risks of future climate changes on crop yield and NUE in the study regions and can also help target fertilization practices for effectively mitigating climate change.
KeywordClimate change Yield Nitrogen use efficiency SPACSYS Crop rotation Northeastern and northwestern China
DOI10.1007/s10705-019-10013-4
WOS KeywordSOIL ORGANIC-MATTER ; CO2 FERTILIZATION ; REGIONAL-SCALE ; CHINA ; CARBON ; INCREASE ; GROWTH ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; SPACSYS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFC0503805] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701333] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41620104006] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Non-profit National Research Institute[Y2017LM06] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Non-profit National Research Institute[BBS/E/C/000I0320] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Non-profit National Research Institute[BBS/E/C/000I0330]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Non-profit National Research Institute
WOS Research AreaAgriculture
WOS SubjectSoil Science
WOS IDWOS:000480817900007
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/68844
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Xubo; Sun, Nan
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Natl Engn Lab Improving Qual Arable Land, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
3.Jilin Univ, Coll Earth Sci, Changchun 130061, Jilin, Peoples R China
4.Rothamsted Res, Sustainable Agr Syst, Okehampton EX20 2SB, Devon, England
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liang, Shuo,Zhang, Xubo,Sun, Nan,et al. Modeling crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency in wheat and maize production systems under future climate change[J]. NUTRIENT CYCLING IN AGROECOSYSTEMS,2019,115(1):117-136.
APA Liang, Shuo,Zhang, Xubo,Sun, Nan,Li, Yuefen,Xu, Minggang,&Wu, Lianhai.(2019).Modeling crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency in wheat and maize production systems under future climate change.NUTRIENT CYCLING IN AGROECOSYSTEMS,115(1),117-136.
MLA Liang, Shuo,et al."Modeling crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency in wheat and maize production systems under future climate change".NUTRIENT CYCLING IN AGROECOSYSTEMS 115.1(2019):117-136.
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