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Development of Threshold Levels and a Climate-Sensitivity Model of the Hydrological Regime of the High-Altitude Catchment of the Western Himalayas, Pakistan
Saifullah, Muhammad1,2; Liu, Shiyin1; Tahir, Adnan Ahmad3; Zaman, Muhammad4; Ahmad, Sajjad5; Adnan, Muhammad6,7; Chen, Dianyu1; Ashraf, Muhammad8,9; Mehmood, Asif10
2019-07-01
Source PublicationWATER
ISSN2073-4441
Volume11Issue:7Pages:39
Corresponding AuthorLiu, Shiyin(shiyin.liu@ynu.edu.cn)
AbstractWater shortages in Pakistan are among the most severe in the world, and its water resources are decreasing significantly due to the prevailing hydro-meteorological conditions. We assessed variations in meteorological and hydrological variables using innovative trend analysis (ITA) and traditional trend analysis methods at a practical significance level, which is also of practical interest. We developed threshold levels of hydrological variables and developed a non-parametric climate-sensitivity model of the high-altitude catchment of the western Himalayas. The runoff of Zone I decreased, while the temperature increased and the precipitation increased significantly. In Zone II, the runoff and temperature increased but the precipitation decreased. A two-dimensional visualization of the Parde coefficient showed extreme drought events, and indicated greater sensitivity of the hydrological regime to temperature than to precipitation. The threshold levels of runoff for Zones I and II were 320 and 363 mm using the Q(80) fixed method, while the mean runoff amounts were estimated to be 79.95 and 55.61 mm, respectively. The transient threshold levels varied by month, and the duration of droughts in Zones I and II ranged from 26.39 to 78.98 days. The sensitivity of the hydrological regime was estimated based on a modified climate-elasticity model (epsilon(p) = 0.11-0.23, epsilon(t) = -0.04-2.39) for Zones I and II, respectively. These results highlight the sensitivity of the hydrological regime to temperature, which influences the melting process. However, it is important to establish thresholds for hydrological variables and understand the climate sensitivity of the hydrological regime of the entire basin, so that policy makers and water managers can make sustainable water-resource-management decisions for this region.
Keyworddrought severity drought duration precipitation sensitivity temperature sensitivity climate change
DOI10.3390/w11071454
WOS KeywordHUNZA RIVER-BASIN ; CHANGING CLIMATE ; RUNOFF CHANGE ; JHELUM BASIN ; SNOW COVER ; STREAMFLOW ; DROUGHT ; IMPACTS ; PRECIPITATION ; DURATION
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41761144075] ; International Center for Integrated Mountain Development NSFC-ICIMOD[41761144075] ; Higher Education Commission (HEC) of Pakistan[HEC/STR/279] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[209071] ; Yunnan University[YJRC3201702]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; International Center for Integrated Mountain Development NSFC-ICIMOD ; Higher Education Commission (HEC) of Pakistan ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; Yunnan University
WOS Research AreaWater Resources
WOS SubjectWater Resources
WOS IDWOS:000480632300139
PublisherMDPI
Citation statistics
Cited Times:3[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/68670
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorLiu, Shiyin
Affiliation1.Yunnan Univ, Inst Int Rivers & Ecosecur, Kunming 650500, Yunnan, Peoples R China
2.Muhammad Nawaz Shareef Univ Agr, Dept Agr Engn, Multan 66000, Pakistan
3.COMSATS Univ Islamabad, Dept Environm Sci, Abbottabad Campus, Abbottabad 22060, Pakistan
4.Univ Agr Faisalabad, Dept Irrigat & Drainage, Faisalabad 380000, Pakistan
5.Univ Nevada, Dept Civil & Environm Engn & Construct, Las Vegas, NV 89154 USA
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
8.Khwaja Fareed Univ Engn & Informat Technol, Dept Agr Engn, Rahim Yar Khan 64200, Pakistan
9.Common Wealth Sci & Ind Res Org Land andWater, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Saifullah, Muhammad,Liu, Shiyin,Tahir, Adnan Ahmad,et al. Development of Threshold Levels and a Climate-Sensitivity Model of the Hydrological Regime of the High-Altitude Catchment of the Western Himalayas, Pakistan[J]. WATER,2019,11(7):39.
APA Saifullah, Muhammad.,Liu, Shiyin.,Tahir, Adnan Ahmad.,Zaman, Muhammad.,Ahmad, Sajjad.,...&Mehmood, Asif.(2019).Development of Threshold Levels and a Climate-Sensitivity Model of the Hydrological Regime of the High-Altitude Catchment of the Western Himalayas, Pakistan.WATER,11(7),39.
MLA Saifullah, Muhammad,et al."Development of Threshold Levels and a Climate-Sensitivity Model of the Hydrological Regime of the High-Altitude Catchment of the Western Himalayas, Pakistan".WATER 11.7(2019):39.
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