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CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China
Wu, Wenxiang1; Fang, Qian1,2; Ge, Quansheng1; Zhou, Mengzi2; Lin, Yumei1,2
2014
Source PublicationCROP & PASTURE SCIENCE
Volume65Issue:12Pages:1267-1277
AbstractGlobal temperatures are rising, and concerns about the response of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. Adaptation is a key factor that will shape the severity of impacts of future climate change on food production. Based on actual meteorological, soil and agricultural management data at site scale, the CERES-Rice model, combined with the Regional Climate Model (RCM)-PRECIS, was used to simulate both the effects of climate change on rice yields and the efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China. The impact simulation showed that rice yield changes ranged from +0.1% to -44.9% (A2 scenario) and from -0.3% to -40.1% (B2 scenario) without considering CO2 fertilisation effects. When considering CO2 fertilisation effects, rice yield reductions induced by temperature increases were decreased at all sites. The CO2 fertilisation effects may partly offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice yields. Adaptive option results revealed that the adverse impacts of climate change on rice yields could be mitigated by advancing the planting dates, transplanting mid-late-maturing rice cultivars to replace early-maturing ones, and breeding new rice cultivars with high thermal requirements. Our findings provide insight into the possible impacts of climate change on rice production, and we suggest which adaptive strategies could be used to cope with future climate change, thus providing evidence-based suggestions for government policy on adaptive strategies.
SubtypeArticle
KeywordAdaptive Options Ceres-rice Model Climate Change Impact Northeast China Rice Yield Simulation
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology ; Life Sciences & Biomedicine
WOS Subject ExtendedAgriculture
WOS KeywordELEVATED CO2 ; WHEAT PRODUCTION ; MAIZE PRODUCTION ; CROP PRODUCTION ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; FOOD SECURITY ; ADAPTATION ; SCENARIOS ; PHENOLOGY ; RESPONSES
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS SubjectAgriculture, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000345324400002
PublisherCSIRO PUBLISHING
Citation statistics
Cited Times:5[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/68394
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorWu, Wenxiang
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wu, Wenxiang,Fang, Qian,Ge, Quansheng,et al. CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China[J]. CROP & PASTURE SCIENCE,2014,65(12):1267-1277.
APA Wu, Wenxiang,Fang, Qian,Ge, Quansheng,Zhou, Mengzi,&Lin, Yumei.(2014).CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China.CROP & PASTURE SCIENCE,65(12),1267-1277.
MLA Wu, Wenxiang,et al."CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China".CROP & PASTURE SCIENCE 65.12(2014):1267-1277.
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