CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China

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	CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China
	Wu, Wenxiang1 ; Fang, Qian 1,2; Ge, Quansheng1 ; Zhou, Mengzi 2; Lin, Yumei 1,2
	2014
Source Publication	CROP & PASTURE SCIENCE
Volume	65 Issue:12 Pages:1267-1277
Abstract	Global temperatures are rising, and concerns about the response of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. Adaptation is a key factor that will shape the severity of impacts of future climate change on food production. Based on actual meteorological, soil and agricultural management data at site scale, the CERES-Rice model, combined with the Regional Climate Model (RCM)-PRECIS, was used to simulate both the effects of climate change on rice yields and the efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China. The impact simulation showed that rice yield changes ranged from +0.1% to -44.9% (A2 scenario) and from -0.3% to -40.1% (B2 scenario) without considering CO2 fertilisation effects. When considering CO2 fertilisation effects, rice yield reductions induced by temperature increases were decreased at all sites. The CO2 fertilisation effects may partly offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice yields. Adaptive option results revealed that the adverse impacts of climate change on rice yields could be mitigated by advancing the planting dates, transplanting mid-late-maturing rice cultivars to replace early-maturing ones, and breeding new rice cultivars with high thermal requirements. Our findings provide insight into the possible impacts of climate change on rice production, and we suggest which adaptive strategies could be used to cope with future climate change, thus providing evidence-based suggestions for government policy on adaptive strategies.
Subtype	Article
Keyword	Adaptive Options Ceres-rice Model Climate Change Impact Northeast China Rice Yield Simulation
WOS Headings	Science & Technology ; Life Sciences & Biomedicine
WOS Subject Extended	Agriculture
WOS Keyword	ELEVATED CO2 ; WHEAT PRODUCTION ; MAIZE PRODUCTION ; CROP PRODUCTION ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; FOOD SECURITY ; ADAPTATION ; SCENARIOS ; PHENOLOGY ; RESPONSES
Indexed By	SCI
Language	英语
WOS Subject	Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
WOS ID	WOS:000345324400002
Publisher	CSIRO PUBLISHING
Citation statistics	Cited Times:7[WOS] [WOS Record] [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type	期刊论文
Identifier	http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/68394
Collection	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding Author	Wu, Wenxiang
Affiliation	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714	Wu, Wenxiang,Fang, Qian,Ge, Quansheng,et al. CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China[J]. CROP & PASTURE SCIENCE,2014,65(12):1267-1277.
APA	Wu, Wenxiang,Fang, Qian,Ge, Quansheng,Zhou, Mengzi,&Lin, Yumei.(2014).CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China.CROP & PASTURE SCIENCE,65(12),1267-1277.
MLA	Wu, Wenxiang,et al."CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China".CROP & PASTURE SCIENCE 65.12(2014):1267-1277.

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