IGSNRR OpenIR
Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods
Liu, Bing1,2; Asseng, Senthold2; Muller, Christoph3; Ewert, Frank4,5; Elliott, Joshua6,7; Lobell, David B.8,9; Martre, Pierre10; Ruane, Alex C.6,11; Wallach, Daniel12; Jones, JamesW.2; Rosenzweig, Cynthia6,11; Aggarwal, Pramod K.13; Alderman, Phillip D.14; Anothai, Jakarat15; Basso, Bruno16,17; Biernath, Christian18; Cammarano, Davide19; Challinor, Andy20,21; Deryng, Delphine6,7; De Sanctis, Giacomo22; Doltra, Jordi23; Fereres, Elias24; Folberth, Christian25; Garcia-Vila, Margarita24; Gayler, Sebastian27; Hoogenboom, Gerrit2,28; Hunt, Leslie A.29; Izaurralde, Roberto C.30,31; Jabloun, Mohamed32; Jones, Curtis D.30; Kersebaum, Kurt C.33; Kimball, Bruce A.34; Koehler, Ann-Kristin20; Kumar, Soora Naresh35; Nendel, Claas33; O'Leary, Garry J.36; Olesen, Jorgen E.32; Ottman, Michael J.37; Palosuo, Taru38; Prasad, P. V. Vara39; Priesack, Eckart18; Pugh, Thomas A. M.40,41,42; Reynolds, Matthew43; Rezaei, Ehsan E.4,44; Rotter, Reimund P.38,45; Schmid, Erwin46; Semenov, Mikhail A.47; Shcherbak, Iurii16,17; Stehfest, Elke48; Stockle, Claudio O.49; Stratonovitch, Pierre47; Streck, Thilo27; Supit, Iwan50,51; Tao, Fulu38,52; Thorburn, Peter53; Waha, Katharina3,53; Wall, Gerard W.34; Wang, Enli54; White, Jeffrey W.34; Wolf, Joost50,51; Zhao, Zhigan54,55; Zhu, Yan1
2016-12-01
Source PublicationNATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN1758-678X
Volume6Issue:12Pages:1130-+
Corresponding AuthorZhu, Yan(yanzhu@njau.edu.cn)
AbstractThe potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 degrees C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
DOI10.1038/NCLIMATE3115
WOS KeywordCLIMATE-CHANGE ; WINTER-WHEAT ; CROP YIELDS ; HEAT ; CO2 ; TRENDS ; METAANALYSIS ; VARIABILITY ; SYSTEMS ; GROWTH
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational High-Tech Research and Development Program of China[2013AA100404] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31271616] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31611130182] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571088] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31561143003] ; National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China[20120097110042] ; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD) ; China Scholarship Council ; IFPRI through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat ; Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)
Funding OrganizationNational High-Tech Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China ; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD) ; China Scholarship Council ; IFPRI through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat ; Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000389432200023
PublisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Citation statistics
Cited Times:97[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/65531
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhu, Yan
Affiliation1.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
2.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
3.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
4.Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, D-53115 Bonn, Germany
5.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res ZALF, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany
6.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA
7.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
8.Stanford Univ, Dept Environm Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
9.Stanford Univ, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
10.Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, UMR LEPSE, F-34060 Montpellier, France
11.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
12.INRA, Agrosyst & Dev Terr AGIR UMR1248, F-31326 Castanet Tolosan, France
13.CIMMYT, Borlaug Inst South Asia, CGIAR Res Program Climate Change Agr & Food Secur, New Delhi 110012, India
14.Oklahoma State Univ, Dept Plant & Soil Sci, Stillwater, OK 74078 USA
15.Prince Songkla Univ, Fac Nat Resources, Dept Plant Sci, Hat Yai 90112, Thailand
16.Michigan State Univ, Dept Geol Sci, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA
17.Michigan State Univ, WK Kellogg Biol Stn, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA
18.German Res Ctr Environm Hlth, Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen, Inst Ecol, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany
19.James Hutton Inst Invergowrie, Dundee DD2 5DA, Scotland
20.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
21.Int Ctr Trop Agr CIAT, CGIAR ESSP Program Climate Change Agr & Hod Secur, Cali, Colombia
22.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra, Italy
23.Cantabrian Agr Res & Training Ctr CIFA, Muriedas 39600, Spain
24.Univ Cordoba, Dept Agron, Apartado 3048, E-14080 Cordoba, Spain
25.Univ Munich, Dept Geog, D-80333 Munich, Germany
26.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
27.Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, D-70599 Stuttgart, Germany
28.Washington State Univ, AgWeatherNet Program, Prosser, WA 99350 USA
29.Univ Guelph, Dept Plant Agr, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
30.Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
31.Texas A&M Univ, Texas A&M AgriLife Res & Extens Ctr, Temple, TX 76502 USA
32.Aarhus Univ, Dept Agroecol, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark
33.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, Inst Landscape Syst Anal, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany
34.ARS, USDA, US Arid Land Agr Res Ctr, Maricopa, AZ 85138 USA
35.IARI PUSA, Indian Agr Res Inst, Ctr Environm Sci & Climate Resilient Agr, New Delhi 110012, India
36.Dept Econ Dev Jobs Transport & Resources, Landscape & Water Sci, Horsham, Vic 3400, Australia
37.Univ Arizona, Sch Plant Sci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA
38.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
39.Kansas State Univ, Dept Agron, Manhattan, KS 66506 USA
40.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res Atmospher Environm Re, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany
41.Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England
42.Univ Birmingham, Birmingham Inst Forest Res, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England
43.CIMMYT Int, AP 6-641, Mexico City 06600, DF, Mexico
44.Ctr Dev Res ZEF, Walter Flex Str 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany
45.Georg August Univ Gottingen, Grisebachstr 6, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany
46.Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, A-1180 Vienna, Austria
47.Rothamsted Res, Computat & Syst Biol Dept, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England
48.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands
49.Washington State Univ, Dept Biol Syst Engn, Pullman, WA 99164 USA
50.Wageningen Univ & Res, PPS, WSG, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
51.Wageningen Univ & Res, CALM, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
52.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
53.CSIRO Agr & Food, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia
54.CSIRO Agr & Food, Black Mt, ACT 2601, Australia
55.China Agr Univ, Dept Agron & Biotechnol, Yuanmingyuan West Rd 2, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Bing,Asseng, Senthold,Muller, Christoph,et al. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2016,6(12):1130-+.
APA Liu, Bing.,Asseng, Senthold.,Muller, Christoph.,Ewert, Frank.,Elliott, Joshua.,...&Zhu, Yan.(2016).Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,6(12),1130-+.
MLA Liu, Bing,et al."Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 6.12(2016):1130-+.
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