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A new method for assessing the risk of infectious disease outbreak
Liao, Yilan1,2; Xu, Bing1,3,4; Wang, Jinfeng1,2; Liu, Xiaochi1,5
2017-01-09
Source PublicationSCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN2045-2322
Volume7Pages:12
Corresponding AuthorLiao, Yilan(liaoyl@lreis.ac.cn)
AbstractOver the past few years, emergent threats posed by infectious diseases and bioterrorism have become public health concerns that have increased the need for prompt disease outbreak warnings. In most of the existing disease surveillance systems, disease outbreak risk is assessed by the detection of disease outbreaks. However, this is a retrospective approach that impacts the timeliness of the warning. Some disease surveillance systems can predict the probabilities of infectious disease outbreaks in advance by determining the relationship between a disease outbreak and the risk factors. However, this process depends on the availability of risk factor data. In this article, we propose a Bayesian belief network (BBN) method to assess disease outbreak risks at different spatial scales based on cases or virus detection rates. Our experimental results show that this method is more accurate than traditional methods and can make uncertainty estimates, even when some data are unavailable.
DOI10.1038/srep40084
WOS KeywordCHINA ; SURVEILLANCE ; DEFECTS ; HESHUN ; SYSTEM
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41101431] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41471377] ; Young Talent Fund of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS[2012RC201]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Young Talent Fund of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics
WOS SubjectMultidisciplinary Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000391478800001
PublisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/65173
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorLiao, Yilan
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Key Lab Surveillance & Early Warning Infect Dis, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sino Danish Coll, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
4.Sino Danish Ctr Educ & Res, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
5.China Univ Geosci, Sch Informat Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liao, Yilan,Xu, Bing,Wang, Jinfeng,et al. A new method for assessing the risk of infectious disease outbreak[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2017,7:12.
APA Liao, Yilan,Xu, Bing,Wang, Jinfeng,&Liu, Xiaochi.(2017).A new method for assessing the risk of infectious disease outbreak.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7,12.
MLA Liao, Yilan,et al."A new method for assessing the risk of infectious disease outbreak".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7(2017):12.
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