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Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011-2100
Peng, Shouzhang1,2; Ding, Yongxia3; Wen, Zhongming1,2; Chen, Yunming1,2; Cao, Yang1,2; Ren, Jingyu4
2017-02-15
Source PublicationAGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
ISSN0168-1923
Volume233Pages:183-194
Corresponding AuthorChen, Yunming(ymchen@ms.iswc.ac.cn)
AbstractThe spatiotemporal change and trend of annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) over the Loess Plateau of China from 2011 to 2100 are assessed in this work. PET is calculated using the Hargreaves model with monthly mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and a 1 km spatial resolution, which are generated using the Delta downscaling method and general circulation models (GCMs) with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The PET trend is detected via Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator tests. The following results are drawn: (1) the Delta downscaling method shows a favorable performance in detecting GCM monthly temperatures based on the mean absolute error and regression analysis between downscaled data and independent surface observations. Among the 28 GCMs, the NorESM1-M and GISS-E2-R models show the best performance in reproducing the monthly mean/maximum and minimum temperatures over the Loess Plateau, respectively; (2) the average annual PET over this region will increase by 12.7%-23.9% from 1961 to 1990 to the end of this century (2071-2100). However, these increments show strong spatial variations; (3) the annual PET during the 2011-2100 period at each grid of the region demonstrates a significantly increasing trend under each RCP scenario, while RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 have average magnitudes of trend of 10.4 mm/10yr, 17.7 mm/10yr, 21 mm/10yr, and 29.7 min/10yr, respectively; (4) the annual PET with significant trends during the other three periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) presentvarious spatial distributions in their magnitudes of trend under the aforementioned RCP scenarios. RCP2.6 showed a significant decrease during 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, although such trends are only observed at 0.3% and 1.2% of the Loess Plateau, respectively; and (5) the spatial results provide some information, such as locations and area ratios, which are valuable in assessing future PET changes and trends. These spatiotemporal results represent the PET changes and trends in detail and provide insights for developing flexible adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat the effects of global warming in this region. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordPotential evapotranspiration Delta downscaling Hargreaves model Mann-Kendall trend test Sen's slope estimator Loess plateau
DOI10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.11.129
WOS KeywordEASTERN UNITED-STATES ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL ; BASIC EVALUATION ; COUPLED MODEL ; PART 1 ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; CMIP5 ; VARIABILITY
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41601058] ; CAS Light of West China Program[XAB2015B07] ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects)[GYHY201506001-3] ; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; CAS Light of West China Program ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects) ; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China
WOS Research AreaAgriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectAgronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000393259400017
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Cited Times:15[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/64948
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorChen, Yunming
Affiliation1.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China
3.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth Environm Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
4.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Peng, Shouzhang,Ding, Yongxia,Wen, Zhongming,et al. Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011-2100[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2017,233:183-194.
APA Peng, Shouzhang,Ding, Yongxia,Wen, Zhongming,Chen, Yunming,Cao, Yang,&Ren, Jingyu.(2017).Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011-2100.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,233,183-194.
MLA Peng, Shouzhang,et al."Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011-2100".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 233(2017):183-194.
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