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Probabilistic modeling of aggregate lead exposure in children of urban China using an adapted IEUBK model
Zhong, Buqing1; Giubilato, Elisa2; Critto, Andrea2; Wang, Lingqing3; Marcomini, Antonio2; Zhang, Jinliang1
2017-04-15
Source PublicationSCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN0048-9697
Volume584Pages:259-267
Corresponding AuthorZhong, Buqing(zbq0910@163.com)
AbstractLead, a ubiquitous pollutant throughout the environment, is confirmed to be neurotoxic for children by pulmonary and oral routes. As preschool children in China continue to be exposed to lead, we analyzed the available biomonitoring data for preschool children in urban China collected in the period 2004-2014 through a literature review. To identify apportionment of lead exposure sources for urban children in China, we modified the IEUBK model with a Monte Carlo module to assess the uncertainty and variability of the model output based on limited available exposure data and compared the simulated blood lead levels with the observed ones obtained through literature review. Although children's blood lead levels in urban China decreased statistically over time for the included studies, changes in blood lead levels in three economic zones and seven age groups except for two age specific groups were no longer significant. The GM-predicted BLLs and the GM-observed BLLs agreed within 1 mu g/dL for all fourteen cities. The 95% Cls for the predicted GMs and the observed distribution (GM +/- GSD) overlapped substantially. These results demonstrated the plausibility of blood lead prediction provided by the adapted IEUBK model. Lead exposure estimates for diet, soil/dust, air, and drinking water were 12.01 +/- 6.27 mu g/day, 2.69 +/- 0.89 mu g/day, 0.20 +/- 0.15 mu g/day, and 0.029 +/- 0.012 mu g/day, respectively. These findings showed that the reduction of lead concentrations in grains and vegetables would be beneficial to limit the risk of dietary lead exposure for a large proportion of preschool children in urban China. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.
KeywordChildren Lead exposure Blood lead level IEUBK model Source apportionment Exposure pathways
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.164
WOS KeywordUPTAKE BIOKINETIC MODEL ; BLOOD LEAD ; PHARMACOKINETIC MODEL ; RISK-ASSESSMENT ; ISOTOPE RATIOS ; YOUNG-CHILDREN ; DIETARY-INTAKE ; KINETIC-MODEL ; HOUSE-DUST ; PB
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectMinistry of Science and Technology[2012CB525005] ; European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)[269233-GLOCOM]
Funding OrganizationMinistry of Science and Technology ; European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000399358500026
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/64563
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhong, Buqing
Affiliation1.Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
2.Univ Ca Foscari Venice, Dept Environm Sci Informat & Stat, Via Torino 155, I-30172 Venice, Italy
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhong, Buqing,Giubilato, Elisa,Critto, Andrea,et al. Probabilistic modeling of aggregate lead exposure in children of urban China using an adapted IEUBK model[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2017,584:259-267.
APA Zhong, Buqing,Giubilato, Elisa,Critto, Andrea,Wang, Lingqing,Marcomini, Antonio,&Zhang, Jinliang.(2017).Probabilistic modeling of aggregate lead exposure in children of urban China using an adapted IEUBK model.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,584,259-267.
MLA Zhong, Buqing,et al."Probabilistic modeling of aggregate lead exposure in children of urban China using an adapted IEUBK model".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 584(2017):259-267.
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