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Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013
Cao, Zhi1; Shen, Lei1,2; Liu, Litao1; Zhao, Jianan1,2; Zhong, Shuai1; Kong, Hanxiao1,2; Sun, Yanzhi1,2
2017-07-01
Source PublicationRESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
ISSN0921-3449
Volume122Pages:21-31
Corresponding AuthorShen, Lei(shenlei0603@gmail.com) ; Liu, Litao(liult@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractCement provides a foundational function for buildings and infrastructures in the modern society. Huge amounts of cement have been consumed during the rapid urbanization process in China. Understanding the trajectory of the in-use cement stock could gain insight into the cement inflow, waste flow and associated environmental impacts. However, an economy-wide estimation for Chinese in-use cement stock is still lacking. Using the dynamic MFA, this paper seeks to provide a long-period (1920-2013) estimate for Chinese in-use cement stock in three branches (i.e., buildings, infrastructure facilities and agriculture facilities). To evaluate uncertainties inherent in the in-use cement stock, the Monte Carlo method is adopted here to calculate the confidence intervals of the results. The simulation results demonstrate that, at the end of 2013, Chinese in-use cement stock has reached 21.5 billion metric tons whilst in-use cement stocks of the building, infrastructure and agriculture sector are 17.3, 3.4 and 0.8 billion metric tons, respectively. During the recent decade, the per capita in-use cement has been experiencing a sharp increase from 2.1t/capita in 1992-15.8t/capita in 2013. The exponential growth of Chinese in-use cement stock underlines the need for prolonging the lifetime and reducing cement intensity of buildings and infrastructures to realize dematerialization in China. The estimation on the historical evolution of the in-use cement stock could lay a solid foundation for predicting the future cement demand and related environmental impacts. In addition, robustness of the estimation method has been validated by the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordCement In-use stock Dynamic MFA Uncertainty analysis Monte Carlo
DOI10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.01.021
WOS KeywordMATERIAL FLOW-ANALYSIS ; DYNAMIC-ANALYSIS ; ALUMINUM STOCKS ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; STEEL CYCLE ; MATERIALS DEMAND ; UNITED-STATES ; ENERGY USE ; IRON ; COPPER
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectStrategic Priority Research Program - Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA05010400] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41271547] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41401644] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41501604]
Funding OrganizationStrategic Priority Research Program - Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEngineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000401881300003
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/64489
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorShen, Lei; Liu, Litao
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Cao, Zhi,Shen, Lei,Liu, Litao,et al. Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013[J]. RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING,2017,122:21-31.
APA Cao, Zhi.,Shen, Lei.,Liu, Litao.,Zhao, Jianan.,Zhong, Shuai.,...&Sun, Yanzhi.(2017).Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013.RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING,122,21-31.
MLA Cao, Zhi,et al."Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013".RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 122(2017):21-31.
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