New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015-2030
Sun Dongqi1; Zhou Liang2; Li Yu1; Liu Haimeng1; Shen Xiaoyan3; Wang Zedong3; Wang Xixi3
Corresponding AuthorLi Yu(liy@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractThe future development of new-type urbanization has drawn great attention from both the government and public alike. In this context, the present study had three related research aims. Firstly, it sought to predict the urbanization and population dynamics in China at both national and provincial levels for the period of 2015 to 2030. Secondly, on this basis, it sought to examine the spatial variation of urbanization given the predicted national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Thirdly, it sought to estimate and evaluate the national and provincial demands of investment in the development of new-type urbanization. The main conclusions from this study were as follows: (1) The population size and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030. (2) The demographic dividend will vanish when the population pressure reaches its maximum. During this period, there will be 70.16 million urban population born. The suburban population that becomes urbanized will be 316.7 million, and thus the net increase in urban population will reach 386 million. (3) Although the urbanization rate of every Chinese province will increase during 2015-2030, it will do so unequally, while differences in urbanization quality among provinces will also be substantial. In some-provinces, moreover, the urbanization quality is not compatible with their eco-social development. (4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is required to fund new-type urbanization and the investment demand for each province varies greatly; for example, Guangdong province requires the most funding, amounting to approximately 148 times that required by Tibet, the province in least need of funding. In the final part of this study, policy suggestions concerning the investment of the new-type urbanization are put forward and discussed.
Keywordnew-type urbanization urbanization investment 2015-2030 forecasting China
Indexed BySCI
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41501137] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41530634] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41271186]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China
WOS Research AreaPhysical Geography
WOS SubjectGeography, Physical
WOS IDWOS:000401046200003
Citation statistics
Cited Times:16[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorLi Yu
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Lanzhou Jiaotong Univ, Fac Geomat, Lanzhou 730070, Peoples R China
3.Ludong Univ, Sch Resources & Environm Engn, Yantai 264025, Shandong, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Sun Dongqi,Zhou Liang,Li Yu,et al. New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015-2030[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,2017,27(8):943-966.
APA Sun Dongqi.,Zhou Liang.,Li Yu.,Liu Haimeng.,Shen Xiaoyan.,...&Wang Xixi.(2017).New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015-2030.JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,27(8),943-966.
MLA Sun Dongqi,et al."New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015-2030".JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 27.8(2017):943-966.
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