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Ecological Niche Modeling Identifies Fine-Scale Areas at High Risk of Dengue Fever in the Pearl River Delta, China
Li, Qiaoxuan1,2; Ren, Hongyan2; Zheng, Lan2,3; Cao, Wei2; Zhang, An2; Zhuang, Dafang2; Lu, Liang4; Jiang, Huixian1
2017-06-01
Source PublicationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
ISSN1660-4601
Volume14Issue:6Pages:13
Corresponding AuthorRen, Hongyan(renhy@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Jiang, Huixian(jhx155@163.com)
AbstractDengue fever (DF) is one of the most common and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral diseases in tropical and subtropical regions. In recent years, this imported disease has posed a serious threat to public health in China, especially in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Although the severity of DF outbreaks in the PRD is generally associated with known risk factors, fine scale assessments of areas at high risk for DF outbreaks are limited. We built five ecological niche models to identify such areas including a variety of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables, as well as, in some models, extracted principal components. All the models we tested accurately identified the risk of DF, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were greater than 0.8, but the model using all original variables was the most accurate (AUC = 0.906). Socioeconomic variables had a greater impact on this model (total contribution 55.27%) than climatic and environmental variables (total contribution 44.93%). We found the highest risk of DF outbreaks on the border of Guangzhou and Foshan (in the central PRD), and in northern Zhongshan (in the southern PRD). Our fine-scale results may help health agencies to focus epidemic monitoring tightly on the areas at highest risk of DF outbreaks.
Keyworddengue fever Maxent socioeconomic factors environmental conditions Guangzhou Foshan
DOI10.3390/ijerph14060619
WOS KeywordGUANGDONG PROVINCE ; MAINLAND CHINA ; TRANSMISSION ; GUANGZHOU ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; URBANIZATION ; SUITABILITY ; DISEASE
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41571158] ; LREIS[O8R8B6A0YA] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC1201305] ; National Program on Major Scientific Research Project - MOST of China[2012CB955504]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; LREIS ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Program on Major Scientific Research Project - MOST of China
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS IDWOS:000404107600067
PublisherMDPI AG
Citation statistics
Cited Times:5[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/63113
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorRen, Hongyan; Jiang, Huixian
Affiliation1.Fujian Normal Univ, Coll Geog Sci, 8 Shangsan Rd, Fuzhou 350007, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.East China Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, 500 Dongchuan Rd, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China
4.China CDC, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, 5 Changbai Rd, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, Qiaoxuan,Ren, Hongyan,Zheng, Lan,et al. Ecological Niche Modeling Identifies Fine-Scale Areas at High Risk of Dengue Fever in the Pearl River Delta, China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2017,14(6):13.
APA Li, Qiaoxuan.,Ren, Hongyan.,Zheng, Lan.,Cao, Wei.,Zhang, An.,...&Jiang, Huixian.(2017).Ecological Niche Modeling Identifies Fine-Scale Areas at High Risk of Dengue Fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,14(6),13.
MLA Li, Qiaoxuan,et al."Ecological Niche Modeling Identifies Fine-Scale Areas at High Risk of Dengue Fever in the Pearl River Delta, China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 14.6(2017):13.
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