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Simulation of the climatic effects of land use/land cover changes in eastern China using multi-model ensembles
Zhang, Xianliang1; Xiong, Zhe2; Zhang, Xuezhen3; Shi, Ying4; Liu, Jiyuan3; Shao, Quanqin3; Yan, Xiaodong5
2017-07-01
Source PublicationGLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
ISSN0921-8181
Volume154Pages:1-9
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Xianliang(zhangxianliang@syau.edu.cn) ; Yan, Xiaodong(yxd@bnu.edu.cn)
AbstractHuman activities have caused substantial land use/cover change (LUCC) in China, especially in northeast China, the Loess Plateau and southern China. Three high-resolution regional climate models were used to simulate the impacts of LUCC on climate through one control experiment and three land use change experiments from 1980 to 2000. The results showed that multi-regional climate model ensemble simulations (the arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA)) provide more accurate results than a single model in over 70% grid cells of study regions. Uncertainty was reduced when using the two ensemble methods. The results of the AEM and BMA ensembles showed that the temperatures decreased by 0.2-0.4 degrees C in northeast China, the Yangtze river valley and the north of the Loess Plateau, and by 0.6-1.0 degrees C in the south of the Loess Plateau in spring, autumn and winter. The AEM precipitations changed by - 40-40 min in in spring and winter, and by - 100-100 mm in summer and autumn, while the BMA precipitations changed by - 20-20 tom in spring, autumn and winter, and by - 50-50 mm in summer. The seasonal precipitation decreased in northeast China and the Yangtze river valley, and increased in the Loess Plateau in most grid cells of study regions. Winter and spring precipitation decreased more in the Yangtze river valley and the Loess Plateau than in northeast China.
KeywordLand use change Eastern China Multi-model ensemble WRF RegCM3 RIEMS
DOI10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.05.003
WOS KeywordANTHROPOGENIC TRANSFORMATION ; TROPICAL DEFORESTATION ; MODEL ; ASIA ; CLASSIFICATION ; IMPACTS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41601045] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570632] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571094] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570473] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91425304] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41471171] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41271066] ; IGSNRR[2015RC101]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; IGSNRR
WOS Research AreaPhysical Geography ; Geology
WOS SubjectGeography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000404701000001
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Cited Times:5[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/63109
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Xianliang; Yan, Xiaodong
Affiliation1.Shenyang Agr Univ, Coll Forestry, Shenyang 110866, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, CAS Key Lab Reg Climate Environm East Asia, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
4.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
5.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Stuface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100087, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Xianliang,Xiong, Zhe,Zhang, Xuezhen,et al. Simulation of the climatic effects of land use/land cover changes in eastern China using multi-model ensembles[J]. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,2017,154:1-9.
APA Zhang, Xianliang.,Xiong, Zhe.,Zhang, Xuezhen.,Shi, Ying.,Liu, Jiyuan.,...&Yan, Xiaodong.(2017).Simulation of the climatic effects of land use/land cover changes in eastern China using multi-model ensembles.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,154,1-9.
MLA Zhang, Xianliang,et al."Simulation of the climatic effects of land use/land cover changes in eastern China using multi-model ensembles".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 154(2017):1-9.
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