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China's Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications
Wang, Xibo1; Yao, Mingtao2; Li, Jiashuo3; Zhang, Kexue4,5; Zhu, He6,7; Zheng, Minsi8
2017-06-01
Source PublicationSUSTAINABILITY
ISSN2071-1050
Volume9Issue:6Pages:14
Corresponding AuthorLi, Jiashuo(lijiashuo@hust.edu.cn)
AbstractBecause of their unique physical and chemical properties, Rare earth elements (REEs) perform important functions in our everyday lives, with use in a range of products. Recently, the study of China's rare earth elements production has become a hot topic of worldwide interest, because of its dominant position in global rare earth elements supply, and an increasing demand for rare earth elements due to the constant use of rare earth elements in high-tech manufacturing industries. At the same time, as an exhaustible resource, the sustainable development of rare earth elements has received extensive attention. However, most of the study results are based on a qualitative analysis of rare earth elements distribution and production capacity, with few studies using quantitative modeling. To achieve reliable results with more factors being taken into consideration, this paper applies the generic multivariant system dynamics model to forecast China's rare earth elements production trend and Hubbert peak, using Vensim software based on the Hubbert model. The results show that the peak of China's rare earth elements production will appear by 2040, and that production will slowly decline afterwards. Based on the results, the paper proposes some policy recommendations for the sustainable development of China's-and the world's-rare earth elements market and rare earth-related industries.
Keywordrare earths sustainable development production forecast system dynamics model policy recommendations
DOI10.3390/su9061003
WOS KeywordMULTICYCLIC HUBBERT MODEL ; COAL PRODUCTION ; PEAK ; ELEMENTS ; CURVES ; TRENDS ; US
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41601596] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2017M610043] ; project of Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment of Ministry of Land and Resource[CCA2016.09]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; project of Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment of Ministry of Land and Resource
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS IDWOS:000404133200134
PublisherMDPI AG
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/62993
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorLi, Jiashuo
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Software, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
2.Natl Dev & Reform Commiss, Energy Res Inst, Beijing 10038, Peoples R China
3.Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Energy & Power Engn, Dept New Energy Sci & Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China
4.China Coal Res Inst, Intelligent Control Technol Branch, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China
5.China Univ Min & Technol, State Key Lab Geomechan & Deep Underground Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
8.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Econ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Xibo,Yao, Mingtao,Li, Jiashuo,et al. China's Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2017,9(6):14.
APA Wang, Xibo,Yao, Mingtao,Li, Jiashuo,Zhang, Kexue,Zhu, He,&Zheng, Minsi.(2017).China's Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications.SUSTAINABILITY,9(6),14.
MLA Wang, Xibo,et al."China's Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications".SUSTAINABILITY 9.6(2017):14.
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