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Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models
Liu, Wenbin1; Sun, Fubao1,2,3
2017-04-01
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
ISSN1525-755X
Volume18Issue:4Pages:977-991
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractAtmospheric evaporative demand plays a pivotal role in global water and energy budgets, and its change is very important for drought monitoring, irrigation scheduling, and water resource management under a changing environment. Here, future changes of pan evaporation E-pan, a measurable indicator for atmospheric evaporative demand, are first projected and attributed over China through a physically based approach, namely, the PenPan model, forced with outputs from 12 state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. An equidistant quantile mapping method was also used to correct the biases in GCMs outputs to reduce uncertainty in E-pan projection. The results indicated that E-pan would increase during the periods 2021-50 and 2071-2100 relative to the baseline period 1971-2000 under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which can mainly be attributed to the projected increase in air temperature and vapor pressure deficit over China. The percentage increase of E-pan is relatively larger in eastern China than in western China, which is due to the spatially inconsistent increases in air temperature, net radiation, wind speed, and vapor pressure deficit over China. The widely reported "pan evaporation paradox'' was not well reproduced for the period 1961-2000 in the climate models, before or after bias correction, suggesting discrepancy between observed and modeled trends. With that caveat, it was found that the pan evaporation has been projected to increase at a rate of 117-167 mm yr(-1) K-1 (72-80 mm yr(-1) K-1) over China using the multiple GCMs under the RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario with increased greenhouse gases and the associated warming of the climate system.
DOI10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1
WOS KeywordPAN EVAPORATION ; REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; UNITED-STATES ; TRENDS ; DROUGHT ; PRECIPITATION ; IMPACTS ; REGION ; CYCLE
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0401401] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology in Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; National Science Foundation of China[41330529] ; National Science Foundation of China[41401037] ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; Initial Founding of Scientific Research from Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, CAS[Y5V50019YE]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology in Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; National Science Foundation of China ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; Initial Founding of Scientific Research from Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, CAS
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000405433500004
PublisherAMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Citation statistics
Cited Times:7[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/62955
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Hexi Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Zhangye City, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Wenbin,Sun, Fubao. Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,2017,18(4):977-991.
APA Liu, Wenbin,&Sun, Fubao.(2017).Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,18(4),977-991.
MLA Liu, Wenbin,et al."Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 18.4(2017):977-991.
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