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Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Lu, Qing1,2; Zhao, Dongsheng1; Wu, Shaohong1,2
2017-06-19
Source PublicationSCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN2045-2322
Volume7Pages:13
Corresponding AuthorZhao, Dongsheng(zhaods@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractClimate warming causes changes in permafrost distribution, which affects the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle and carbon flux in cold regions. In this study, the Surface Frost Number model was applied to examine permafrost distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) under the four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The Kappa statistic was used to evaluate model results by comparing simulations of baseline permafrost distribution (1981-2010) with the existing frozen soil maps. The comparison shows that the Surface Frost Number model is suitable for simulating the general characteristics of permafrost distribution on the QTP. Simulated results suggest that areas of permafrost degradation would be the smallest in the near-term (2011. 2040) with the rates of 17.17%, 18.07%, 12.95% and 15.66% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. The rate of permafrost degradation would be faster in the mid-term (2041. 2070), especially under the RCP8.5 scenario (about 41.42%). Areas of permafrost degradation would be the largest in the long-term (2071. 2099) relative to baseline conditions, with a modelled 64.31% decrease in permafrost distribution using the RCP8.5 scenario. Our results would help the decision. making for engineering construction program on the QTP, and support local units in their efforts to adapt climate change.
DOI10.1038/s41598-017-04140-7
WOS KeywordGLOBAL VEGETATION MODEL ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; MAPPING PERMAFROST ; CHINA ; CARBON ; ECOSYSTEM ; CMIP5 ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; FREEZE/THAW ; DEGRADATION
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Nature Science Foundation of China[41571193] ; National Nature Science Foundation of China[41530749] ; National Science and Technology Support Program of China[2013BAC04B02]
Funding OrganizationNational Nature Science Foundation of China ; National Science and Technology Support Program of China
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics
WOS SubjectMultidisciplinary Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000403650300088
PublisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Citation statistics
Cited Times:7[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/62831
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhao, Dongsheng
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Lu, Qing,Zhao, Dongsheng,Wu, Shaohong. Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2017,7:13.
APA Lu, Qing,Zhao, Dongsheng,&Wu, Shaohong.(2017).Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7,13.
MLA Lu, Qing,et al."Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7(2017):13.
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