IGSNRR OpenIR
Spatio-temporal patterns of winter wheat yield potential and yield gap during the past three decades in North China
Chen, Yi1; Zhang, Zhao1; Tao, Fulu2; Wang, Pin1; Wei, Xing1
2017-05-01
Source PublicationFIELD CROPS RESEARCH
ISSN0378-4290
Volume206Pages:11-20
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Zhao(zhangzhao@bnu.edu.cn)
AbstractTo develop strategies for sustainable intensification of agricultural production, it is necessary to obtain precise and spatially explicit knowledge of crop potential and yield gap at a large scale. In this study, we estimated the yield potential for winter wheat by county during the period of 1981-2008 in North China using an ensemble simulation of a well validated large-scale crop model, MCWLA-Wheat, for each 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees grid. An ensemble simulation was used to better represent the heterogeneous conditions in climate, soil and cultivars over a large area. The spatio-temporal patterns of winter wheat actual yield, yield potential and yield gap were evaluated according to the simulation results. We found that more than 90% of counties had experienced an overall increase in wheat yield. However, 30.1% of counties have already experienced yield stagnation. The mean yield potential ranged generally from approximately 5000 to 8000 kg/ha. The yield potential under water-limited conditions showed considerably smaller values, ranging from about 2000 to 5000 kg/ha. Yield gaps in about 62% of counties were generally lower than 40% of potential yields, indicating a relatively small potential for yield improvement. During the study period, yield potential decreased in most counties because of a significant increase in temperature and decrease in solar radiation. In contrast, the increase of yield potential in the west and southeast areas could be attributed to the increase of solar radiation during the growing season. Overall, yield gap in the past decades showed a substantial decrease due to the changing pattern of yield potential and the rapid increase of actual yield, especially in the North China Plain, with a rate of 1-3% per year. These patterns imply a shrinking of space for further yield improvement. Our results highlight the necessity of applying advanced management technologies to realize a high yield, as well as adopting technical progress and policy support to overcome the yield bottleneck. Moreover, breeding climate-resilient cultivars to further increase yield potential should be of equal importance. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordYield potential Food security Climate change Agronomic management Adaptation
DOI10.1016/j.fcr.2017.02.012
WOS KeywordCROP YIELD ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FOOD SECURITY ; PLAIN ; TEMPERATURE ; MANAGEMENT ; MODEL ; PRODUCTIVITY ; IRRIGATION ; STAGNATION
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41571088] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571493] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFD0300201] ; Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China[41621061] ; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University[2014-ZY-06]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China ; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University
WOS Research AreaAgriculture
WOS SubjectAgronomy
WOS IDWOS:000400532300002
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Cited Times:9[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/62675
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Zhao
Affiliation1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resources Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Chen, Yi,Zhang, Zhao,Tao, Fulu,et al. Spatio-temporal patterns of winter wheat yield potential and yield gap during the past three decades in North China[J]. FIELD CROPS RESEARCH,2017,206:11-20.
APA Chen, Yi,Zhang, Zhao,Tao, Fulu,Wang, Pin,&Wei, Xing.(2017).Spatio-temporal patterns of winter wheat yield potential and yield gap during the past three decades in North China.FIELD CROPS RESEARCH,206,11-20.
MLA Chen, Yi,et al."Spatio-temporal patterns of winter wheat yield potential and yield gap during the past three decades in North China".FIELD CROPS RESEARCH 206(2017):11-20.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Chen, Yi]'s Articles
[Zhang, Zhao]'s Articles
[Tao, Fulu]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Chen, Yi]'s Articles
[Zhang, Zhao]'s Articles
[Tao, Fulu]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Chen, Yi]'s Articles
[Zhang, Zhao]'s Articles
[Tao, Fulu]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.