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Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years
Xu, C. D.1; Xiao, G. X.2
2017-10-01
Source PublicationEPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
ISSN0950-2688
Volume145Issue:14Pages:2912-2920
Corresponding AuthorXu, C. D.(xucd@lreis.ac.cn)
AbstractHand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) risk has become an increasing concern in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which is the biggest urban agglomeration in north-eastern Asia. In the study, spatiotemporal epidemiological features of HFMD were analysed, and a Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was used to detect local spatial relative risk (RR) and to assess the effect of meteorological factors. From 2009 to 2013, there was an obvious seasonal pattern of HFMD risk. The highest risk period was in the summer, with an average monthly incidence of 4.17/10(3), whereas the index in wintertime was 0.16/10(3). Meteorological variables influenced temporal changes in HFMD. A 1 degrees C rise in air temperature was associated with an 11.5% increase in HFMD (corresponding RR 1.122). A 1% rise in relative humidity was related to a 9.51% increase in the number of HFMD cases (corresponding RR 1.100). A 1 hPa increment in air pressure was related to a 0.11% decrease in HFMD (corresponding RR 0.999). A 1 h increase in sunshine was associated with a 0.28% rise in HFMD cases (corresponding RR 1.003). A 1 m/s rise in wind speed was related to a 6.2% increase in HFMD (corresponding RR 1.064). High-risk areas were mainly large cities, such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and their neighbouring areas. These findings can contribute to risk control and implementation of disease-prevention policies.
KeywordFoot and mouth disease hand meteorological factors risk mapping
DOI10.1017/S0950268817001984
WOS KeywordENTEROVIRUS 71 ; CHINA ; EPIDEMIC ; MODELS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41601419] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41531179] ; Youth Science Funds of LREIS, CAS ; IGSNRR new scientific research project[Y5V5001AYE] ; Innovation Project of LREIS[O88RA205YA] ; Innovation Project of LREIS[O88RA200YA] ; Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China[GYHY20140616]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Science Funds of LREIS, CAS ; IGSNRR new scientific research project ; Innovation Project of LREIS ; Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China
WOS Research AreaPublic, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
WOS SubjectPublic, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
WOS IDWOS:000413208700005
PublisherCAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/62458
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorXu, C. D.
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.China Natl Ctr Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xu, C. D.,Xiao, G. X.. Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years[J]. EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,2017,145(14):2912-2920.
APA Xu, C. D.,&Xiao, G. X..(2017).Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years.EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,145(14),2912-2920.
MLA Xu, C. D.,et al."Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years".EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION 145.14(2017):2912-2920.
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