Spatial-temporal detection of risk factors for bacillary dysentery in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, China
Xu, Chengdong1; Li, Yuanyuan1,2; Wang, Jinfeng1; Xiao, Gexin3
Source PublicationBMC PUBLIC HEALTH
Corresponding AuthorXu, Chengdong(xucd@lreis.ac.cn)
AbstractBackground: Bacillary dysentery is the third leading notifiable disease and remains a major public health concern in China. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban region is the biggest urban agglomeration in northern China, and it is one of the areas in the country that is most heavily infected with bacillary dysentery. The objective of the study was to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern and to determine any contributory risk factors on the bacillary dysentery. Methods: Bacillary dysentery case data from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei were employed. GeoDetector method was used to determine the impact of potential risk factors, and to identify regions and seasons at high risk of the disease. Results: There were 36,472 cases of bacillary dysentery in 2012 in the study region. The incidence of bacillary dysentery varies widely amongst different age groups; the higher incidence of bacillary dysentery mainly occurs in the population under the age of five. Bacillary dysentery presents apparent seasonal variance, with the highest incidence occurring from June to September. In terms of the potential meteorological risk factors, mean temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, mean wind speed and sunshine hours explain the time variant of bacillary dysentery at 83%, 31%, 25%, 17% and 13%, respectively. The interactive effect between temperature and humidity has an explanatory power of 87%, indicating that a hot and humid environment is more likely to lead to the occurrence of bacillary dysentery. Socio-economic factors affect the spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery. The top four factors are age group, per capita GDP, population density and rural population proportion, and their determinant powers are 61%, 27%, 25% and 21%, respectively. The interactive effect between age group and the other factors accounts for more than 60% of bacillary dysentery transmission. Conclusions: Bacillary dysentery poses a higher risk in the population of children. It is affected by meteorological and socio-economic factors, and it is necessary to pay more attention to the meteorological period and situation, particularly in period with high temperature and humidity, as well as places in urban areas with high population density, and a low proportion of rural population.
KeywordBacillary dysentery Meteorological factors Socio-economic factors Spatial-temporal GeoDetector model
Indexed BySCI
Funding ProjectNational Science Foundation of China[41601419] ; National Science Foundation of China[41531179] ; [GYHY20140616]
Funding OrganizationNational Science Foundation of China
WOS Research AreaPublic, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS SubjectPublic, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS IDWOS:000412110200007
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Cited Times:7[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorXu, Chengdong
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Changan Univ, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
3.China Natl Ctr Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xu, Chengdong,Li, Yuanyuan,Wang, Jinfeng,et al. Spatial-temporal detection of risk factors for bacillary dysentery in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, China[J]. BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,2017,17:11.
APA Xu, Chengdong,Li, Yuanyuan,Wang, Jinfeng,&Xiao, Gexin.(2017).Spatial-temporal detection of risk factors for bacillary dysentery in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, China.BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,17,11.
MLA Xu, Chengdong,et al."Spatial-temporal detection of risk factors for bacillary dysentery in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, China".BMC PUBLIC HEALTH 17(2017):11.
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