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Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China
Lin, Yumei1,4; Feng, Zhiming1,4; Wu, Wenxiang2; Yang, Yanzhao1,4; Zhou, Yang3; Xu, Chenchen2,4
2017-07-01
Source PublicationAGRONOMY JOURNAL
ISSN0002-1962
Volume109Issue:4Pages:1476-1490
Corresponding AuthorWu, Wenxiang(wuwx@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractNortheast China (NEC) is an important region for maize (Zea mays L.) production in China, and is the country's most significant commercial food base. However, NEC is also one of the areas that are most significantly affected by climate change in this country. Maize is sensitive to climatic changes, and to develop effective strategies for guaranteeing regional food security, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of the impacts of climate change and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in NEC. In this study, the Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Maize v4.5 model, coupled with newly released data for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, was applied to simulate maize yields for future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) and to estimate the effect of CO2 fertilization and the effectiveness of three typical adaptation measures for maize production in NEC. The results indicated a trend of a continuing decline in maize yield for both RCP scenarios, and the decrease in maize yield under RCP8.5 was predicted to be greater than that under RCP4.5. The effect of CO2 fertilization was forecast to be too small to off set the negative impacts of climate change. Three adaptation measures-changing planting dates, switching to later-maturing cultivars, and breeding new cultivars with high thermal time requirements-could mitigate negative climate change impacts to varying degrees; switching cultivars may exert the most significant effect on increasing maize yields.
DOI10.2134/agronj2016.05.0275
WOS KeywordCERES-MAIZE ; YIELD ; MODEL ; PERFORMANCE ; SIMULATION ; PHOTOSYNTHESIS ; PRODUCTIVITY ; CULTIVATION ; ENVIRONMENT ; SCENARIOS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41430861] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41471453]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China
WOS Research AreaAgriculture
WOS SubjectAgronomy
WOS IDWOS:000410407900032
PublisherAMER SOC AGRONOMY
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/61976
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorWu, Wenxiang
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Resources Use & Environm Remediat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Lin, Yumei,Feng, Zhiming,Wu, Wenxiang,et al. Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China[J]. AGRONOMY JOURNAL,2017,109(4):1476-1490.
APA Lin, Yumei,Feng, Zhiming,Wu, Wenxiang,Yang, Yanzhao,Zhou, Yang,&Xu, Chenchen.(2017).Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China.AGRONOMY JOURNAL,109(4),1476-1490.
MLA Lin, Yumei,et al."Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China".AGRONOMY JOURNAL 109.4(2017):1476-1490.
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