Multimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations
Liu, Xingcai1; Tang, Qiuhong1,2; Cui, Huijuan3; Mu, Mengfei1,2; Gerten, Dieter4,5; Gosling, Simon N.6; Masaki, Yoshimitsu7; Satoh, Yusuke8; Wada, Yoshihide8,9,10,11
Corresponding AuthorTang, Qiuhong(tangqh@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractHuman impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are quantified in terms of the ratio of signal to noise (SNR) for average river flow during 1971-2000 simulated in two experiments, with representation of human impacts (VARSOC) and without (NOSOC). It is the first quantitative investigation of between-model uncertainty resulted from the inclusion of human impact parameterizations. Results show that the between-model uncertainties in terms of SNRs in the VARSOC annual flow are larger (about 2% for global and varied magnitude for different basins) than those in the NOSOC, which are particularly significant in most areas of Asia and northern areas to the Mediterranean Sea. The SNR differences are mostly negative (-20% to 5%, indicating higher uncertainty) for basin-averaged annual flow. The VARSOC high flow shows slightly lower uncertainties than NOSOC simulations, with SNR differences mostly ranging from -20% to 20%. The uncertainty differences between the two experiments are significantly related to the fraction of irrigation areas of basins. The large additional uncertainties in VARSOC simulations introduced by the inclusion of parameterizations of human impacts raise the urgent need of GHMs development regarding a better understanding of human impacts. Differences in the parameterizations of irrigation, reservoir regulation and water withdrawals are discussed towards potential directions of improvements for future GHM development. We also discuss the advantages of statistical approaches to reduce the between-model uncertainties, and the importance of calibration of GHMs for not only better performances of historical simulations but also more robust and confidential future projections of hydrological changes under a changing environment.
Keyworduncertainty global hydrological model human impact parameterizations multimodel approach
Indexed BySCI
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41425002] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-4] ; National Youth Topnotch Talent Support Program in China ; Ministry of the Environment[S-10]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Youth Topnotch Talent Support Program in China ; Ministry of the Environment
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000410376100002
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Cited Times:13[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorTang, Qiuhong
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
4.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
5.Humboldt Univ, Unter Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany
6.Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England
7.Natl Inst Environm Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan
8.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria
9.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
10.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA
11.Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Utrecht, Netherlands
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Xingcai,Tang, Qiuhong,Cui, Huijuan,et al. Multimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(2):10.
APA Liu, Xingcai.,Tang, Qiuhong.,Cui, Huijuan.,Mu, Mengfei.,Gerten, Dieter.,...&Wada, Yoshihide.(2017).Multimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(2),10.
MLA Liu, Xingcai,et al."Multimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.2(2017):10.
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