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Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change
Yan, Dan1,2; Ludwig, Fulco1; Huang, He Qing2; Werners, Saskia E.1
2017-12-31
Source PublicationSCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN0048-9697
Volume607Pages:294-303
Corresponding AuthorYan, Dan(dan.yan@wur.nl)
AbstractWater allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordMulti-objective evolutionary algorithms Climate uncertainties Robust decision making Pearl River basin
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.265
WOS KeywordEVOLUTIONARY MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION ; CHANGE UNCERTAINTIES ; RESOURCES ; MODEL ; RIVER ; ALGORITHMS ; CHINA ; SIMULATION ; FRAMEWORK ; DROUGHT
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectJoint Scientific Thematic Research Programme (JSTP) Working with Water: adaptive land use and water management in the Pearl River Delta under climate change and sea level rise[842.00.002] ; International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China[2013DFA91700] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41330751] ; External Cooperation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[GJHZ1019] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2013M540135]
Funding OrganizationJoint Scientific Thematic Research Programme (JSTP) Working with Water: adaptive land use and water management in the Pearl River Delta under climate change and sea level rise ; International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; External Cooperation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000408755300031
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Cited Times:7[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/61695
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorYan, Dan
Affiliation1.Wageningen Univ & Res, Water Syst & Global Change, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yan, Dan,Ludwig, Fulco,Huang, He Qing,et al. Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2017,607:294-303.
APA Yan, Dan,Ludwig, Fulco,Huang, He Qing,&Werners, Saskia E..(2017).Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,607,294-303.
MLA Yan, Dan,et al."Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 607(2017):294-303.
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