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Rice yield development and the shrinking yield gaps in China, 1981-2008
Chen, Yi1; Wang, Pin2; Zhang, Zhao1; Tao, Fulu3,4,5; Wei, Xing1
2017-12-01
Source PublicationREGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN1436-3798
Volume17Issue:8Pages:2397-2408
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Zhao(zhangzhao@bnu.edu.cn)
AbstractIncreasing population, limited land resources, and the demand for environmental protection highlight the urgency of improving crop yield on the limited cultivated land. To identify a possible food supply under a sustainable intensification of agricultural production, it is necessary to accurately estimate yield potentials and yield gaps. Here, we used a well-validated, large-scale process-based crop model, Model to capture the Crop-weather relationship over a Large Area for rice, and an ensemble model simulation method to estimate the yield potential across the rice planting area of China. We further evaluated the spatiotemporal patterns of actual yield, yield potential, and yield gap over the past three decades. Rice yield showed an increasing trend in more than 95% of the studied counties. However, 48.3% of the counties were already experiencing yield stagnation. The yield potential in northeast China had increased over the past three decades by 20-40 kg/ha per year because of the increase in temperature, while the increased temperature and decreased solar radiation reduced the yield potentials in other regions by 10-30 kg/ha per year. Because of changes in the actual yield and yield potential, the yield gap decreased in 93.4% of the counties by an average of 0.5-2% per year, resulting in less room for yield improvement. Additionally, 65.9% of the counties had nearly approached their yield ceilings (> 70% of the yield potential). Our study highlights that popularizing advanced management technologies to close yield gaps and breeding climate-resilient cultivars to expand yield potentials should be of equal importance for the sustainable development of agricultural production and food security.
KeywordCrop model Yield gap Yield trends Climate change Food security
DOI10.1007/s10113-017-1168-7
WOS KeywordIRRIGATED RICE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TEMPERATURE STRESS ; GREENHOUSE GASES ; WINTER-WHEAT ; MODEL ; PRODUCTIVITY ; UNCERTAINTIES ; AGRICULTURE ; POTENTIALS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectFund of National Natural Science Foundation of China[31561143003] ; Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571493] ; Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571088] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFD0300201] ; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology
Funding OrganizationFund of National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS IDWOS:000415136200018
PublisherSPRINGER HEIDELBERG
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/61238
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Zhao
Affiliation1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Hazards, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
2.Hangzhou Normal Univ, Inst Remote Sensing & Earth Sci, Hangzhou 311121, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Chen, Yi,Wang, Pin,Zhang, Zhao,et al. Rice yield development and the shrinking yield gaps in China, 1981-2008[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2017,17(8):2397-2408.
APA Chen, Yi,Wang, Pin,Zhang, Zhao,Tao, Fulu,&Wei, Xing.(2017).Rice yield development and the shrinking yield gaps in China, 1981-2008.REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,17(8),2397-2408.
MLA Chen, Yi,et al."Rice yield development and the shrinking yield gaps in China, 1981-2008".REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 17.8(2017):2397-2408.
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