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Shortening the recurrence periods of extreme water levels under future sea-level rise
Wu, Shaohong1; Feng, Aiqing1,2; Gao, Jiangbo1; Chen, Manchun3; Li, Yanzhong2,4; Wang, Lei5
2017-12-01
Source PublicationSTOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
ISSN1436-3240
Volume31Issue:10Pages:2573-2584
Corresponding AuthorWu, Shaohong(wush@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractSea-level rise, as a result of global warming, may lead to more natural disasters in coastal regions where there are substantial aggregations of population and property. Thus, this paper focuses on the impact of sea-level rise on the recurrence periods of extreme water levels fitted using the Pearson type III (P-III) model. Current extreme water levels are calculated using observational data, including astronomical high tides and storm surges, while future extreme water levels are determined by superposing scenario data of sea-level rise onto current extreme water levels. On the basis of a case study using data from Shandong Province, China, results indicated that sea-level rise would significantly shorten the recurrence periods of extreme water levels, especially under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Results showed that by the middle of the century, 100-year current extreme water levels for all stations would translate into once in 15-30 years under RCP 2.6, and once in ten to 25 years under RCP 8.5. Most seriously, the currently low probability event of a 1000-year recurrence would become common, occurring nearly every 10 years by 2100, based on projections under RCP 8.5. Therefore, according to this study, corresponding risk to coastlines could well be increase in future, as the recurrence periods of extreme water levels would be shortened with climate change.
KeywordRecurrence period Extreme water level Sea-level rise Climate change Risk management
DOI10.1007/s00477-016-1327-2
WOS KeywordCLIMATE-CHANGE ; STORM-SURGE ; EAST-COAST ; IMPACTS ; CHINA ; TIDE ; PROJECTIONS ; ADAPTATION ; SCENARIOS ; FLOODS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Science and Technology Support Program[2013BAK05B04] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41530749] ; Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Funding Projects of China[2013034]
Funding OrganizationNational Science and Technology Support Program ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Funding Projects of China
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectEngineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000415137900007
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Cited Times:6[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/61143
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorWu, Shaohong
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Natl Marine Data & Informat Serv, Tianjin 300171, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
5.North China Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Yellow River Inst Sci, Zhengzhou 450045, Henan, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wu, Shaohong,Feng, Aiqing,Gao, Jiangbo,et al. Shortening the recurrence periods of extreme water levels under future sea-level rise[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2017,31(10):2573-2584.
APA Wu, Shaohong,Feng, Aiqing,Gao, Jiangbo,Chen, Manchun,Li, Yanzhong,&Wang, Lei.(2017).Shortening the recurrence periods of extreme water levels under future sea-level rise.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,31(10),2573-2584.
MLA Wu, Shaohong,et al."Shortening the recurrence periods of extreme water levels under future sea-level rise".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 31.10(2017):2573-2584.
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