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Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments
Hasegawa, Toshihiro1; Li, Tao2; Yin, Xinyou3; Zhu, Yan4,5,6,7; Boote, Kenneth8; Baker, Jeffrey9; Bregaglio, Simone10; Buis, Samuel11; Confalonieri, Roberto12; Fugice, Job13; Fumoto, Tamon14; Gaydon, Donald15; Kumar, Soora Naresh16; Lafarge, Tanguy17,18; Marcaida, Manuel, III2; Masutomi, Yuji19; Nakagawa, Hiroshi14; Oriol, Philippe17,18; Ruget, Francoise11; Singh, Upendra13; Tang, Liang4,5,6,7; Tao, Fulu20,21; Wakatsuki, Hitomi14; Wallach, Daniel22; Wang, Yulong23; Wilson, Lloyd Ted24; Yang, Lianxin23; Yang, Yubin24; Yoshida, Hiroe14; Zhang, Zhao25; Zhu, Jianguo26
2017-11-01
Source PublicationSCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN2045-2322
Volume7Pages:13
Corresponding AuthorHasegawa, Toshihiro(thase@affrc.go.jp) ; Li, Tao(t.li@irri.org)
AbstractThe CO2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO2] (E[CO2]) by comparison to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO2] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO2] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO2] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO2] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO2]x N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change.
DOI10.1038/s41598-017-13582-y
WOS KeywordATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE ; ORYZA-SATIVA L. ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ELEVATED CO2 ; ENVIRONMENTAL VARIATION ; LEAF-AREA ; SIMULATION-MODEL ; SEASONAL-CHANGES ; CROP PRODUCTION ; BIOMASS GROWTH
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational High-Tech Research and Development Program of China[2013AA100404] ; National Science Foundation of China[31561143003] ; Academy of Finland, PLUMES project[277403] ; MAFF ; Global Environment Research of MOE, Japan[S-10-2] ; project of Global Foresight and Strategic Plan ; EC-FP7[613817]
Funding OrganizationNational High-Tech Research and Development Program of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; Academy of Finland, PLUMES project ; MAFF ; Global Environment Research of MOE, Japan ; project of Global Foresight and Strategic Plan ; EC-FP7
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics
WOS SubjectMultidisciplinary Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000414233900003
PublisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/61044
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorHasegawa, Toshihiro; Li, Tao
Affiliation1.Natl Agr & Food Res Org, Tohoku Agr Res Ctr, Morioka, Iwate 0200198, Japan
2.Int Rice Res Inst, DAPO Box 7777, Manila, Philippines
3.Wageningen Univ & Res, Ctr Crop Syst Anal, POB 430, Wageningen, Netherlands
4.Nanjing Agr Univ, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
5.Nanjing Agr Univ, Minist Agr, Key Lab Crop Syst Anal & Decis Making, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
6.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
7.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
8.Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
9.ARS, USDA, Big Spring, TX 79720 USA
10.Res Ctr Agr & Environm, CREA, I-40128 Bologna, Italy
11.EMMAH, UMR1114, INRA, F-84914 Avignon, France
12.Univ Milan, Cassandra lab, I-20133 Milan, Italy
13.Int Fertilizer Dev Ctr, POB 2040, Muscle Shoals, AL 35662 USA
14.Natl Agr & Food Res Org, Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan
15.CSIRO Agr & Food, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia
16.Indian Agr Res Inst, New Delhi 110012, India
17.UMR AGAP, Cirad, F-34398 Montpellier, France
18.Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRA, INRIA,AGAP,Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
19.Ibaraki Univ, Coll Agr, Inashiki, Ibaraki 3000393, Japan
20.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
21.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
22.INRA, UMR AGIR, Castanet Tolosan, France
23.Yangzhou Univ, Yangzhou 225009, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
24.Texas A&M AgriLife Res Ctr, Beaumont, TX 77701 USA
25.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
26.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil Sci, State Key Lab Soil & Sustainable Agr, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Hasegawa, Toshihiro,Li, Tao,Yin, Xinyou,et al. Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2017,7:13.
APA Hasegawa, Toshihiro.,Li, Tao.,Yin, Xinyou.,Zhu, Yan.,Boote, Kenneth.,...&Zhu, Jianguo.(2017).Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7,13.
MLA Hasegawa, Toshihiro,et al."Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7(2017):13.
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