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Scenario analysis of land use change in Kabul River Basin - A river basin with rapid socio-economic changes in Afghanistan
Najmuddin, Omaid1,2,3; Deng, Xiangzheng1,2,3; Jia Siqi1,2
2017-10-01
Source PublicationPHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH
ISSN1474-7065
Volume101Pages:121-136
Corresponding AuthorDeng, Xiangzheng(dengxz@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractLand use management has a great importance in socio-economic development of countries and regions. Recently, Afghanistan has, at one hand, experienced significant socio-economic changes through political and economic transformation and, on the other hand it is considered amongst vulnerable countries to climate and other natural changes. For this, understanding the interactions between socio-economic and natural changes with land use change under different development scenarios is crucial for sustainable land use management. Present research took Kabul River Basin (KRB) as a case study area and used Dynamic of Land System (DLS) model to simulate land use/cover for the years of 2020 and 2030. For this purpose, various socio-economic and bio-physical datasets were prepared and then integrated into the model under three different scenarios i.e. baseline, economic development, and environmental protection. The results indicated a significant land use change under all three scenarios. Cultivated land, grassland and built-up area will significantly increase under all three scenarios; while forest area, water area and unused land will significantly decrease under the economic development and baseline scenarios. While in the environmental protections scenario, the forest area will considerably increase, however, water area still showed a decreasing trend but it will be lesser as compared to the other two scenarios. By considering the above degradations, particularly under baseline and economic scenarios, it is suggested that the government needs to develop overall land use planning in KRB to achieve a rational exploitation of land resources and we hoped that the results of this study will help to target management decisions on rational land uses and effective environment protections of KRB. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
KeywordLand use change Simulation Scenario analysis Dynamic of Land System Kabul River Basin
DOI10.1016/j.pce.2017.06.002
WOS KeywordAIR-POLLUTION ; COVER CHANGE ; CLIMATE ; CHINA ; IMPACT ; URBANIZATION ; VEGETATION ; URBAN ; DEFORESTATION ; MIGRATION
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectCAS-TWAS Fellowship Program
Funding OrganizationCAS-TWAS Fellowship Program
WOS Research AreaGeology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000416704100014
PublisherPERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
Citation statistics
Cited Times:7[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/60943
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorDeng, Xiangzheng
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Chinese Agr Policy, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Najmuddin, Omaid,Deng, Xiangzheng,Jia Siqi. Scenario analysis of land use change in Kabul River Basin - A river basin with rapid socio-economic changes in Afghanistan[J]. PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH,2017,101:121-136.
APA Najmuddin, Omaid,Deng, Xiangzheng,&Jia Siqi.(2017).Scenario analysis of land use change in Kabul River Basin - A river basin with rapid socio-economic changes in Afghanistan.PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH,101,121-136.
MLA Najmuddin, Omaid,et al."Scenario analysis of land use change in Kabul River Basin - A river basin with rapid socio-economic changes in Afghanistan".PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH 101(2017):121-136.
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