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On the Dominant Factor Controlling Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in China
Zhang, Xuejun1; Tang, Qiuhong1,2; Leng, Guoyong3; Liu, Xingcai1; Li, Zhe1; Huang, Zhongwei1,2
2017-11-01
Source PublicationWATER
ISSN2073-4441
Volume9Issue:11Pages:19
Corresponding AuthorTang, Qiuhong(tangqh@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractInitial conditions (ICs) and climate forecasts (CFs) are the two primary sources of seasonal hydrological forecast skill. However, their relative contribution to predictive skill remains unclear in China. In this study, we investigate the relative roles of ICs and CFs in cumulative runoff (CR) and soil moisture (SM) forecasts using 31-year (1980-2010) ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) and reverse-ESP (revESP) simulations with the Variable Capacity Infiltration (VIC) hydrologic model. The results show that the relative importance of ICs and CFs largely depends on climate regimes. The influence of ICs is stronger in a dry or wet-to-dry climate regime that covers the northern and western interior regions during the late fall to early summer. In particular, ICs may dominate the forecast skill for up to three months or even six months during late fall and winter months, probably due to the low precipitation value and variability in the dry period. In contrast, CFs become more important for most of southern China or during summer months. The impact of ICs on SM forecasts tends to cover larger domains than on CR forecasts. These findings will greatly benefit future work that will target efforts towards improving current forecast levels for the particular regions and forecast periods.
Keywordseasonal hydrological forecasts predictive skill initial conditions climate forecasts hydro-climatic regimes
DOI10.3390/w9110902
WOS KeywordSOIL-MOISTURE ; UNITED-STATES ; STREAMFLOW FORECASTS ; ECONOMIC VALUE ; CLIMATE ; MODEL ; PREDICTABILITY ; WATER ; UNCERTAINTY ; PREDICTION
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41425002] ; Chinese Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2016M601117] ; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China ; Integrated Assessment Research program through the Integrated Multi-sector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Scientific Focus Area (SFA) - Biological and Environmental Research Division of Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy ; U.S. DOE[DE-AC05-76RL01830]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Chinese Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China ; Integrated Assessment Research program through the Integrated Multi-sector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Scientific Focus Area (SFA) - Biological and Environmental Research Division of Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy ; U.S. DOE
WOS Research AreaWater Resources
WOS SubjectWater Resources
WOS IDWOS:000416798300088
PublisherMDPI AG
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/60858
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorTang, Qiuhong
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Xuejun,Tang, Qiuhong,Leng, Guoyong,et al. On the Dominant Factor Controlling Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in China[J]. WATER,2017,9(11):19.
APA Zhang, Xuejun,Tang, Qiuhong,Leng, Guoyong,Liu, Xingcai,Li, Zhe,&Huang, Zhongwei.(2017).On the Dominant Factor Controlling Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in China.WATER,9(11),19.
MLA Zhang, Xuejun,et al."On the Dominant Factor Controlling Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in China".WATER 9.11(2017):19.
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