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Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China
Wu, Zhuo1; Dai, Erfu2; Wu, Zhifeng1; Lin, Meizhen1
2019-04-01
Source PublicationLANDSCAPE ECOLOGY
ISSN0921-2973
Volume34Issue:4Pages:843-863
Corresponding AuthorWu, Zhuo(gzuwzf@163.com)
AbstractContextSubtropical forests have and will continue to face tremendous pressure from various disturbances, which have the potential to alter forest composition, structure, and function. Forest dynamics relate to spatial patterns, ecological processes, and their interactions. However, integrating forest ecosystems and land systems has seldom been attempted in southern China.ObjectivesWe explore the spatiotemporal response and trajectories of forest dynamics at different scales under climate change, harvesting, and land-use disturbances in the near future.MethodsWe simulated forest landscape dynamics by integrating a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II), an ecosystem model (PnET-II), and a land change model (CA-Markov) for 2010 to 2050. We identified changes in forest composition, aboveground biomass, and landscape patterns under individual and integrated scenarios, including a control scenario, climate change, harvesting, and land-use change for tree species, ecoregions, and forest types.ResultsFor forest composition, the forest area continued to increase, and coniferous forests increased approximately 3.7 times that of broad-leaved forests. Harvesting reduced aboveground biomass, with a reduction of 30.3% in comparison to the control scenario. The integrated disturbances showed a greater impact on the forest landscape. Landscape fragmentation increased, showing that the patch density increased by 52.3% (control scenario), 46.2% (climate change), 118.4% (harvest), 55.0% (land use change) and 139.5% (integrated scenarios), respectively.ConclusionsOur results suggest that climate change will contribute to forest growth, especially for coniferous forests. Harvesting will reduce forest area and aboveground biomass. The interaction between human activities and climate change contributes to diminished forest expansion and increased landscape fragmentation.
KeywordForest dynamics Forest disturbances Climate change Land use Model integration Subtropical forests
DOI10.1007/s10980-019-00809-8
WOS KeywordNET PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS ; SPATIAL SIMULATION ; CONIFER PLANTATION ; BIODIVERSITY LOSS ; DRIVING FORCES ; SEED DISPERSAL ; URBAN SPRAWL ; CHANGE RISK ; LANDSCAPE
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41801068] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771097] ; Forestry Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong[2018KJCX013] ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)[2015CB452702]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Forestry Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography ; Geology
WOS SubjectEcology ; Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000467558400009
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/59844
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorWu, Zhuo
Affiliation1.Guangzhou Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Guangzhou Higher Educ Mega Ctr, 230 Wai Huan Xi Rd, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A,Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wu, Zhuo,Dai, Erfu,Wu, Zhifeng,et al. Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China[J]. LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY,2019,34(4):843-863.
APA Wu, Zhuo,Dai, Erfu,Wu, Zhifeng,&Lin, Meizhen.(2019).Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China.LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY,34(4),843-863.
MLA Wu, Zhuo,et al."Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China".LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY 34.4(2019):843-863.
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