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Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change
Ferrarini, Alessandro1; Dai, Junhu2; Bai, Yang3; Alatalo, Juha M.4,5
2019-06-25
Source PublicationSCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN0048-9697
Volume671Pages:1086-1093
Corresponding AuthorAlatalo, Juha M.(jalatalo@qu.edu.qa)
AbstractClimate change is increasingly affecting plant species distributions, in ways that need to be predicted. Here, in a novel prediction approach, we developed the relevant climate niche (RCN) of plants, based on thorough selection of climate variables and implementation of a non-parametric Bayesian network for climate simulations. The RCN was conditionalized to project the fate of Silene acaulis in North America under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; RCP4.5) and extreme(RCP8.5) short-term (2011-2040) climate scenarios. We identified a three-variable climate hypervolume for S. acaulis. Within 20 years >50% of current locations of the species will be outside the defined climate hypervolume. It could compensate for climate change in 2011-2040 through a poleward shift of 0.97 degrees C or an upshift of 138 m in the RCP4.5 scenario, and 1.29 degrees C or 184 m in the RCP8.5 scenario. These results demonstrate the benefits of redefining the climate niche of plant species in the form of a user-defined, data-validated, hierarchical network comprising only variables that are consistent with species distribution. Advantages include realism and interpretability in niche modeling, and new opportunities for predicting future species distributions under climate change. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordClimate change compensation Network-like climate niche Non-parametric Bayesian network North America Reverse climate simulations Silene acaulis L
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.353
WOS KeywordSILENE-ACAULIS ; CUSHION PLANT ; IMPACTS ; ALPINE ; RESPONSES ; POPULATION ; MODELS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectQatar Petroleum[QUEX-ESC-QP-RD-18/19] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFA0606100]
Funding OrganizationQatar Petroleum ; National Key R&D Program of China
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000466090500110
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/59722
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorAlatalo, Juha M.
Affiliation1.Via G Saragat 4, I-43123 Parma, Italy
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Mengla 666303, Yunnan, Peoples R China
4.Qatar Univ, Coll Arts & Sci, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, POB 2713, Doha, Qatar
5.Qatar Univ, Environm Sci Ctr, POB 2713, Doha, Qatar
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ferrarini, Alessandro,Dai, Junhu,Bai, Yang,et al. Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019,671:1086-1093.
APA Ferrarini, Alessandro,Dai, Junhu,Bai, Yang,&Alatalo, Juha M..(2019).Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,671,1086-1093.
MLA Ferrarini, Alessandro,et al."Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 671(2019):1086-1093.
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