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Attributing changes in future extreme droughts based on PDSI in China
Zhang, Jie1; Sun, Fubao1,2,3; Lai, Wenli4; Lim, Wee Ho1; Liu, Wenbin1; Wang, Tingting1; Wang, Pengtao5,6
2019-06-01
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN0022-1694
Volume573Pages:607-615
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractClimate change in mean-state or variability could lead to more/less frequency of extreme drought. In this study, we developed a new framework for decomposing the contributing factors of changes in future extreme drought frequency in China in accordance to the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We performed a series of numerical experiments to ensure that the sensitivity of trend and variability in individual climatic variables can be distinguished. In addition, an extreme drought rate with warming (EDRW, unit: %.K-1) is defined to quantify the relative change in extreme drought frequency per Kelvin. Overall, the EDRW will increase dramatically by an average of 27.71%.K-1. The ascended EDRW are attributed to increases in temperature (+56.90%.K-1), net radiation (14.80%.K-1) and precipitation variability (+8.23%.K-1); a decrease in relative humidity (+4.61%K-1), but is partly offset by an increase in precipitation (i.e., "wetting", -60.12%.K-1). A smaller increase in the frequency of extreme droughts is found in high-latitude regions due to their enhanced sensitivity to "wetting".
KeywordExtreme drought Global warming Numerical experiments Attribution China
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.060
WOS KeywordGLOBAL DROUGHT ; RISK ; PRECIPITATION ; INCREASE
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0401401] ; Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2017-3-1] ; Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2019-3] ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2018M640174]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectEngineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000474327800048
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/58599
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Water Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Hainan Normal Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Haikou, Hainan, Peoples R China
5.Xian Int Studies Univ, Sch Tourism, Xian 710128, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
6.Xian Int Studies Univ, Res Inst Human Geog, Xian 710128, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Jie,Sun, Fubao,Lai, Wenli,et al. Attributing changes in future extreme droughts based on PDSI in China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019,573:607-615.
APA Zhang, Jie.,Sun, Fubao.,Lai, Wenli.,Lim, Wee Ho.,Liu, Wenbin.,...&Wang, Pengtao.(2019).Attributing changes in future extreme droughts based on PDSI in China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,573,607-615.
MLA Zhang, Jie,et al."Attributing changes in future extreme droughts based on PDSI in China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 573(2019):607-615.
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