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Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China
Wang, Meng1; Sun, Xiaofang1; Fan, Zemeng2; Yue, Tianxiang2
2019-06-02
Source PublicationSUSTAINABILITY
ISSN2071-1050
Volume11Issue:12Pages:18
Corresponding AuthorSun, Xiaofang(sunxf@qfnu.edu.cn)
AbstractCropland loss resulting from land use change has drawn great attention in China due to the threat to food security. However, little is known about future magnitude and quality of cropland of China. In this study, the dynamic conversion of land use and its effects model (Dyna-CLUE) together with the Markov model and the potential yield data were used to simulate the influence of land use change on cropland quality in the next two decades under three scenarios. The results indicate that, under the trend scenario, the high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase between 2015 and 2030. The crop yield would decrease by 1.3 x 10(9) kg. Under planned scenario, high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase, and total crop yield would stay almost unchanged. Under the cropland protection scenario, the high-yield cropland would reduce slightly, and the medium-yield and low-yield cropland would increase substantially. The crop yield would increase by 5.36 x 10(10) kg. The result of this study will help decision-makers to develop reasonable land use policies to achieve the goals of harmonious development between food security, economic growth, and environmental protection.
Keywordmodeling scenario cropland protection yield food security management strategies
DOI10.3390/su11123327
WOS KeywordURBAN EXPANSION ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; FOOD SECURITY ; SIMULATION ; IMPACTS ; MODEL ; SCENARIOS ; DYNAMICS ; EUROPE
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectHumanities and Social Sciences Foundation of the Ministry of Education in China[16YJCZH098]
Funding OrganizationHumanities and Social Sciences Foundation of the Ministry of Education in China
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectGreen & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS IDWOS:000473753700097
PublisherMDPI
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/58370
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorSun, Xiaofang
Affiliation1.Qufu Normal Univ, Sch Geog & Tourism, Rizhao 276800, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Meng,Sun, Xiaofang,Fan, Zemeng,et al. Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019,11(12):18.
APA Wang, Meng,Sun, Xiaofang,Fan, Zemeng,&Yue, Tianxiang.(2019).Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China.SUSTAINABILITY,11(12),18.
MLA Wang, Meng,et al."Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China".SUSTAINABILITY 11.12(2019):18.
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