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Assessment of present and future climate change over Kashmir Himalayas, India
ul Shafiq, Mifta1; Ramzan, Shazia1; Ahmed, Pervez1; Mahmood, Rashid2; Dimri, A. P.3
2019-08-01
Source PublicationTHEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0177-798X
Volume137Issue:3-4Pages:3183-3195
Corresponding AuthorAhmed, Pervez(dr.parvez@uok.edu.in)
AbstractClimate change over mountainous basins necessitates thorough understanding of present and future temperature and precipitation regimes for better water resource management, cryospheric resources, hydropower generation, natural hazard risk assessment, and ecosystem response. Global and regional climate models (GCMs/RCMs) do not represent valley/ridge scale interactions well. There are inherent model biases due to coarser reorientation of model forcings. The present study is an attempt to use the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to calibrate and validate Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) outputs. The outputs have been compared with corresponding in situ observations available at six meteorological stations within the Kashmir basin in western Himalayas. Daily temperatures and precipitation records during present and future time slices have been considered. The three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were divided into three future time slices of 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s. Downscaled climate data reveals increase of the mean maximum temperature in the range of 0.3-2.3 degrees C and the mean minimum temperature increase from 0.3-1.9 degrees C under different RCPs when compared with the baseline period of 1980-2010. An increasing trend from 2 to 17% at different meteorological stations under different RCPs has been observed in precipitation. Seasonally, autumn shows the highest variability both in temperature and precipitation followed by spring.
DOI10.1007/s00704-019-02807-x
WOS KeywordCHANGE IMPACTS ; MODEL SIMULATIONS ; WATER-RESOURCES ; RIVER-BASIN ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; SCENARIOS ; GENERATION ; PAKISTAN ; TRENDS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectUniversity Grants Commission, New Delhi ; MOES & NCAOR under HiCOM initiative ; MoEFCC under NMHS ; UGC-NETJRF fellowship scheme
Funding OrganizationUniversity Grants Commission, New Delhi ; MOES & NCAOR under HiCOM initiative ; MoEFCC under NMHS ; UGC-NETJRF fellowship scheme
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000477054700109
PublisherSPRINGER WIEN
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/58194
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorAhmed, Pervez
Affiliation1.Univ Kashmir, Climate & Cryosphere Grp, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Environm Sci, New Delhi, India
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
ul Shafiq, Mifta,Ramzan, Shazia,Ahmed, Pervez,et al. Assessment of present and future climate change over Kashmir Himalayas, India[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019,137(3-4):3183-3195.
APA ul Shafiq, Mifta,Ramzan, Shazia,Ahmed, Pervez,Mahmood, Rashid,&Dimri, A. P..(2019).Assessment of present and future climate change over Kashmir Himalayas, India.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,137(3-4),3183-3195.
MLA ul Shafiq, Mifta,et al."Assessment of present and future climate change over Kashmir Himalayas, India".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 137.3-4(2019):3183-3195.
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