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Uncertainty in Assessing Temperature Impact on US Maize Yield Under Global Warming: The Role of Compounding Precipitation Effect
Leng, Guoyong1,2
2019-06-27
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
Volume124Issue:12Pages:6238-6246
Corresponding AuthorLeng, Guoyong(lenggy@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractHigh temperature alone would lead to a well-understood loss of crop yields, but the compounding effects by other global change factors are much less well understood and can either amplify or reduce temperature-driven yield change. Analysis focusing on U.S. maize yield shows that the concurrent changes in precipitation have nonnegligible influence on temperature-yield relations. For the country as a whole, 27% of the observed strength of temperature-yield relation relates to the compounding precipitation effects. Further analysis shows that precipitation exerted the compounding effects mainly through its direct influence on yields rather than indirectly from its feedback to temperature. Under 2 and 1.5 degrees C global warming, maize yield for the country as a whole is projected to decrease by -13.53 to -14.37% and -9.02 to -9.29%, respectively, with the magnitude of change depending on the climate model. Around 30% of the benefit by constraining global warming to 1.5 degrees C would be contributed by the compounding precipitation effects, pointing to the important role of precipitation in regulating the impacts of temperature rise on yields. The results can greatly improve our understanding and interpretation of the important but uncertain temperature-yield relations. Plain Language Summary This paper assesses the precipitation effect in modulating maize yield response to temperature rise in the United States within the context of global warming. Results show that excluding the effect of precipitation does not lead to significant change in the spatial distribution pattern of temperature-driven maize yield changes but can alter the magnitudes substantially. For the country as a whole, concurrent changes in precipitation lead to a decrease in the sensitivity of maize yield to growing-season temperature from -7.48 to -5.47%/k. Constraining global warming to 1.5 degrees C can benefit maize yield by reducing temperature-driven loss from -13.53 to -14.37% under 2 degrees C to -9.02 to -9.29%. However, the estimated benefit by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C versus 2 degrees C would be altered considerably, when the effects induced by precipitation changes are excluded. This study highlights the important role of precipitation in regulating temperature impact on crop yields, which are subject to substantial uncertainties.
Keywordglobal warming temperature compounding risk 1 5 degrees C crop yield United States
DOI10.1029/2018JD029996
WOS KeywordLEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION ; 1.5 DEGREES-C ; UNITED-STATES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ELEVATED CO2 ; CROP YIELD ; INCREASE ; VARIABILITY ; GROUNDWATER ; MANAGEMENT
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[YJRCPT2019-001]
Funding OrganizationInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000477800000020
PublisherAMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/58113
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorLeng, Guoyong
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Leng, Guoyong. Uncertainty in Assessing Temperature Impact on US Maize Yield Under Global Warming: The Role of Compounding Precipitation Effect[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(12):6238-6246.
APA Leng, Guoyong.(2019).Uncertainty in Assessing Temperature Impact on US Maize Yield Under Global Warming: The Role of Compounding Precipitation Effect.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(12),6238-6246.
MLA Leng, Guoyong."Uncertainty in Assessing Temperature Impact on US Maize Yield Under Global Warming: The Role of Compounding Precipitation Effect".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.12(2019):6238-6246.
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