Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China
Yang, Jun1,2; Pei, Ying1; Zhang, Yanwei2,3; Ge, Quansheng2
Corresponding AuthorYang, Jun(yangjun@lnnu.edu.cn)
AbstractThis study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.
Indexed BySCI
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41471140] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671158] ; Liaoning Province Outstanding Youth Program[LJQ2015058]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Liaoning Province Outstanding Youth Program
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000430539000011
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Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorYang, Jun
Affiliation1.Liaoning Normal Univ, Liaoning Key Lab Phys Geog & Geomat, 850 Huanghe Rd Shahekou Dist, Dalian, Liaoning, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Univ Jinan, Jinan Univ, Soft Power Res Ctr, Jinan, Shandong, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yang, Jun,Pei, Ying,Zhang, Yanwei,et al. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2018,132(3-4):823-834.
APA Yang, Jun,Pei, Ying,Zhang, Yanwei,&Ge, Quansheng.(2018).Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,132(3-4),823-834.
MLA Yang, Jun,et al."Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 132.3-4(2018):823-834.
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