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Assessing the inundation risk resulting from extreme water levels under sea-level rise: a case study of Rongcheng, China
Feng, Aiqing1,2; Gao, Jiangbo2; Wu, Shaohong2,3; Liu, Lulu2,3; Li, Yanzhong4; Yue, Xiliu2,3
2018
Source PublicationGEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK
ISSN1947-5705
Volume9Issue:1Pages:456-470
Corresponding AuthorWu, Shaohong(wush@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractDriven by global climate change, sea-level rise would exacerbate the hazard of extreme water level as a disaster-inducing factor. Based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, this study explored the inundation risk of extreme water levels under climate change and Rongcheng was a case study. Pearson Type III (P-III) distribution was used for refitting recurrence periods of extreme water level. Expected losses exposed to extreme water levels were assessed through inundated area and depth per-unit loss values and vulnerability curves of land-use types. Results indicated that sea-level rise significantly shortened recurrence period in 2050 and 2100, which suggested a higher frequency of extreme water level in future. A large increase in expected direct losses would reach an average of 60% with a 0.82-m sea-level rise (under RCP 8.5) in 2100. Moreover, affected population and gross domestic product would grow 4.95% to 13.87% and 3.66% to 10.95% in 2050, respectively, while the increment in 2100 would be twice. Residential land and farmland were demonstrated as at greater inundation risk because of higher exposure and losses. Consequently, the intensifying hazard and the increase in possible losses suggested that sea-level rise would exacerbate future inundation risk in coastal region.
KeywordSea-level rise inundation risk extreme water level expected direct losses affected population and GDP recurrence period
DOI10.1080/19475705.2018.1447026
WOS KeywordCLIMATE-CHANGE ; FLOOD RISK ; STORM-SURGE ; COASTAL ZONES ; TIDE ; IMPACTS ; SCENARIOS ; EXPOSURE ; CITIES
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41530749] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671098] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41775081] ; Clean Development Mechanism Funding Projects of China[2013034]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Clean Development Mechanism Funding Projects of China
WOS Research AreaGeology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000430045400001
PublisherTAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57279
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorWu, Shaohong
Affiliation1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Coll Hydrometeorol, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Feng, Aiqing,Gao, Jiangbo,Wu, Shaohong,et al. Assessing the inundation risk resulting from extreme water levels under sea-level rise: a case study of Rongcheng, China[J]. GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK,2018,9(1):456-470.
APA Feng, Aiqing,Gao, Jiangbo,Wu, Shaohong,Liu, Lulu,Li, Yanzhong,&Yue, Xiliu.(2018).Assessing the inundation risk resulting from extreme water levels under sea-level rise: a case study of Rongcheng, China.GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK,9(1),456-470.
MLA Feng, Aiqing,et al."Assessing the inundation risk resulting from extreme water levels under sea-level rise: a case study of Rongcheng, China".GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK 9.1(2018):456-470.
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