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Projecting cropping patterns around Poyang lake and prioritizing areas for policy intervention to promote rice: A cellular automata model
Zhang, Rui1; Tian, Qing1; Jiang, Luguang2; Crooks, Andrew1,3; Qi, Shuhua4; Yang, Ruixin3
2018-05-01
Source PublicationLAND USE POLICY
ISSN0264-8377
Volume74Pages:248-260
Corresponding AuthorTian, Qing(qtian2@gmu.edu)
AbstractRural households' cropping choices are increasingly influenced by non-farm activities across the developing world, raising serious concerns about food security locally and globally. In China, rapid urbanization has led to agricultural decline in some regions. To stimulate agriculture, the Chinese government has recently increased its effort in farmland consolidation by providing special support to large farms in an attempt to address land-use inefficiency associated with small farming operations in rural areas. Focusing on the Poyang Lake Region (PLR), we develop an empirical Cellular Automata (CA) model to explore future agricultural land use and examine the impact of farmland consolidation, with the intention of providing insight for policy to effectively promote food production. The PLR is an important rice producing area for Jiangxi Province and China. In the PLR, rice can be grown once a year on a plot, called one-season rice, or twice a year on the same plot, called two-season rice. Our CA model simulates the transition between one-season and two-season rice. We use the modeling results to identify five types of areas (zones) where rice cultivation is (i) relatively stable for one-season rice, (ii) more likely to be one-season rice, (iii) of equal probability for either type, (iv) more likely to be two-season rice, and (v) relatively stable for two-season rice. In addition we explore the characteristics of these zones in terms of biophysical and geographical features to offer a detailed analysis and discussion of how the government may prioritize areas for interventions to sustain rice production amid urbanization. Our analysis also shows some positive effect of farmland consolidation on increasing rice production in the study area.
KeywordAgricultural land use Cellular automata Food security Environmental sustainability Farmland consolidation China
DOI10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.09.040
WOS KeywordLAND-COVER CHANGE ; LEWIS TURNING-POINT ; CATEGORICAL MAPS ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; CHINA ; REGION ; SIMULATION ; DYNAMICS ; DEFORESTATION ; CONSERVATION
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectChinese National Science Foundation[41661114]
Funding OrganizationChinese National Science Foundation
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Studies
WOS IDWOS:000430623900026
PublisherELSEVIER SCI LTD
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57257
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorTian, Qing
Affiliation1.George Mason Univ, Coll Sci, Computat Social Sci Program, Res Hall,Room 374,4400 Univ Dr,MS 6B2, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A,Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.George Mason Univ, Coll Sci, Dept Geog & Geoinformat Sci, 4900 Univ Dr, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA
4.Jiangxi Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Poyang Lake Wetland & Watershed Res, Nanchang 330022, Jiangxi, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Rui,Tian, Qing,Jiang, Luguang,et al. Projecting cropping patterns around Poyang lake and prioritizing areas for policy intervention to promote rice: A cellular automata model[J]. LAND USE POLICY,2018,74:248-260.
APA Zhang, Rui,Tian, Qing,Jiang, Luguang,Crooks, Andrew,Qi, Shuhua,&Yang, Ruixin.(2018).Projecting cropping patterns around Poyang lake and prioritizing areas for policy intervention to promote rice: A cellular automata model.LAND USE POLICY,74,248-260.
MLA Zhang, Rui,et al."Projecting cropping patterns around Poyang lake and prioritizing areas for policy intervention to promote rice: A cellular automata model".LAND USE POLICY 74(2018):248-260.
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