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Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature
Zhang, Liangliang1; Zhang, Zhao1; Chen, Yi1,2; Wei, Xing1; Song, Xiao1
2018-04-01
Source PublicationNATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN0921-030X
Volume91Issue:3Pages:1257-1272
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Zhao(zhangzhao@bnu.edu.cn)
AbstractDriven by increasing demand for food and industrial consumption, world's maize supply is under stress. Besides, the extreme temperature events are now exposing more threat to maize yield with ongoing climate change. Thus, a comprehensive analysis on maize exposure (exposure is defined as the cultivated area which is exposed to extreme temperature stress), vulnerability (here it means how much yield losses with each temperature increase/decrease at a national scale), and adaptation to extreme temperature is essential to better understand the effects on global maize production, especially in major production countries. It was found that warming trends during the growing season have extensively dominated the main maize-growing areas across the globe. And along with this mean temperature trend was the increasing heat stress and decreasing cold stress among most regions. Moreover, from 1981 to 2011, maize yield losses caused by heat stress in China, India, and the USA were 1.13, 0.64 and 1.12% per decade, respectively, while Mexico has been experiencing a reduction of yield loss due to decreased cold stress of 0.53% per decade. Furthermore, during the period of 2021-2051, the extreme heat stress would increase substantially, while the low temperature was estimated to drop slightly during the growing seasons. Such pattern had also been found over the key reproductive stage of maize. Accordingly, through the sensitivity test of two adaption measures, improved high-temperature-tolerant varieties and changing maize calendar earlier could both mitigate extreme meteorological stress on maize, while the former method would be the most effective way to do so. Our study could provide a paradigm for other crops and other countries in the world to analyze their exposure and vulnerability to the temperature stress and make corresponding adaptation measures.
KeywordExposure Vulnerability Adaptation Maize Yield Global warming
DOI10.1007/s11069-018-3181-7
WOS KeywordCLIMATE-CHANGE ; FOOD SECURITY ; CROP PRODUCTION ; CHINA ; STABILIZATION ; IMPACTS ; STRESS ; SYSTEM ; TRENDS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Technologies RD Program[2017YFD0300301] ; National Basic Research Program of China[41571493] ; National Basic Research Program of China[41571088] ; National Basic Research Program of China[31561143003]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Technologies RD Program ; National Basic Research Program of China
WOS Research AreaGeology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000427393100022
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57237
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Zhao
Affiliation1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resources Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Liangliang,Zhang, Zhao,Chen, Yi,et al. Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2018,91(3):1257-1272.
APA Zhang, Liangliang,Zhang, Zhao,Chen, Yi,Wei, Xing,&Song, Xiao.(2018).Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature.NATURAL HAZARDS,91(3),1257-1272.
MLA Zhang, Liangliang,et al."Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature".NATURAL HAZARDS 91.3(2018):1257-1272.
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