Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature

doi:10.1007/s11069-018-3181-7

IGSNRR OpenIR

	Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature
	Zhang, Liangliang 1; Zhang, Zhao 1; Chen, Yi 1,2; Wei, Xing 1; Song, Xiao 1
	2018-04-01
Source Publication	NATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN	0921-030X
Volume	91 Issue:3 Pages:1257-1272
Corresponding Author	Zhang, Zhao(zhangzhao@bnu.edu.cn)
Abstract	Driven by increasing demand for food and industrial consumption, world's maize supply is under stress. Besides, the extreme temperature events are now exposing more threat to maize yield with ongoing climate change. Thus, a comprehensive analysis on maize exposure (exposure is defined as the cultivated area which is exposed to extreme temperature stress), vulnerability (here it means how much yield losses with each temperature increase/decrease at a national scale), and adaptation to extreme temperature is essential to better understand the effects on global maize production, especially in major production countries. It was found that warming trends during the growing season have extensively dominated the main maize-growing areas across the globe. And along with this mean temperature trend was the increasing heat stress and decreasing cold stress among most regions. Moreover, from 1981 to 2011, maize yield losses caused by heat stress in China, India, and the USA were 1.13, 0.64 and 1.12% per decade, respectively, while Mexico has been experiencing a reduction of yield loss due to decreased cold stress of 0.53% per decade. Furthermore, during the period of 2021-2051, the extreme heat stress would increase substantially, while the low temperature was estimated to drop slightly during the growing seasons. Such pattern had also been found over the key reproductive stage of maize. Accordingly, through the sensitivity test of two adaption measures, improved high-temperature-tolerant varieties and changing maize calendar earlier could both mitigate extreme meteorological stress on maize, while the former method would be the most effective way to do so. Our study could provide a paradigm for other crops and other countries in the world to analyze their exposure and vulnerability to the temperature stress and make corresponding adaptation measures.
Keyword	Exposure Vulnerability Adaptation Maize Yield Global warming
DOI	10.1007/s11069-018-3181-7
WOS Keyword	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FOOD SECURITY ; CROP PRODUCTION ; CHINA ; STABILIZATION ; IMPACTS ; STRESS ; SYSTEM ; TRENDS
Indexed By	SCI
Language	英语
Funding Project	National Key Technologies RD Program[2017YFD0300301] ; National Basic Research Program of China[41571493] ; National Basic Research Program of China[41571088] ; National Basic Research Program of China[31561143003]
Funding Organization	National Key Technologies RD Program ; National Basic Research Program of China
WOS Research Area	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS Subject	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS ID	WOS:000427393100022
Publisher	SPRINGER
Citation statistics
Document Type	期刊论文
Identifier	http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57237
Collection	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding Author	Zhang, Zhao
Affiliation	1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resources Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714	Zhang, Liangliang,Zhang, Zhao,Chen, Yi,et al. Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2018,91(3):1257-1272.
APA	Zhang, Liangliang,Zhang, Zhao,Chen, Yi,Wei, Xing,&Song, Xiao.(2018).Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature.NATURAL HAZARDS,91(3),1257-1272.
MLA	Zhang, Liangliang,et al."Exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation of major maize-growing areas to extreme temperature".NATURAL HAZARDS 91.3(2018):1257-1272.

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