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Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi, China
Sun, Qing1,2; Yang, Zaiqiang1; Che, Xianghong3; Han, Wei1; Zhang, Fangmin1; Xiao, Fang1
2018-03-01
Source PublicationNATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN0921-030X
Volume91Issue:1Pages:69-88
Corresponding AuthorYang, Zaiqiang(yzq6751@163.com)
AbstractThe growth of early rice is often threatened by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperatures during the booting and flowering stage. As a high yield loss due to Grain Buds Cold will lead to increasing insurance premiums, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is crucial to the design of weather index insurance. In this study, we propose a new approach to the estimation of premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance. A 2-year artificial controlled experiment was utilized to develop logarithmic and linear yield loss models. Additionally, incorporating 51 years of meteorological data, an information diffusion model was used to calculate the probability of different durations of Grain Buds Cold, ranging from 3 to 20 days. The results show that the pure premium rates determined by a logarithmic yield loss model exhibit lower risk and greater efficiency than those determined by a linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance were found to fluctuate between 7.085 and 10.151% at the county level in Jiangxi Province, while the premium rates based on the linear yield loss model were higher (ranging from 7.787 to 11.672%). Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment presented below provides a more robust, reliable and accurate way of analyzing the relationship between yield and a single meteorological factor. At the same time, the minimal data requirements of this experimental approach indicate that this method could be very important in regions lacking historical yield and climate data. Estimating weather index insurance accurately will help farmers address extreme cold weather risk under changing climatic conditions.
KeywordEarly rice Weather index insurance Artificial controlled experiment Grain Buds Cold
DOI10.1007/s11069-017-3109-7
WOS KeywordAGRICULTURAL INSURANCE ; YIELD RISK ; EFFICIENCY ; VALUATION ; PLAIN
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41475107] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31300420] ; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu[BK20130987] ; National Science and Technology Support Program during the Twelfth Five Year Plan Period[2014BAD10B07] ; College and University's Graduate Student Innovative Scientific Research Projects of Jiangsu Province ; China Scholarship Council
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu ; National Science and Technology Support Program during the Twelfth Five Year Plan Period ; College and University's Graduate Student Innovative Scientific Research Projects of Jiangsu Province ; China Scholarship Council
WOS Research AreaGeology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000424680300004
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57155
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorYang, Zaiqiang
Affiliation1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ KLME,CIC FEMD, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change ILCEC, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
2.Univ Maryland, ESSIC, College Pk, MD 20737 USA
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Sun, Qing,Yang, Zaiqiang,Che, Xianghong,et al. Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi, China[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2018,91(1):69-88.
APA Sun, Qing,Yang, Zaiqiang,Che, Xianghong,Han, Wei,Zhang, Fangmin,&Xiao, Fang.(2018).Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi, China.NATURAL HAZARDS,91(1),69-88.
MLA Sun, Qing,et al."Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi, China".NATURAL HAZARDS 91.1(2018):69-88.
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