A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China
Liu, XiaoQian1,2; Pei, Tao2,3; Zhou, ChengHu2; Du, YunYan2; Ma, Ting2; Xie, ChuanJie2; Xu, Jun2
Corresponding AuthorPei, Tao(peit@lreis.ac.cn)
AbstractCities based on coal resources have increasingly important social and economic roles in China. Their strategies for sustainable development, however, urgently need to be improved, which represents a huge challenge. Most observers believe that the continued progress of these cities relies on the optimization of scientific adaptive management in which social, economic, and ecological factors are incorporated. A systems perspective that combines policies, management priorities, and long-term policy impacts needs to be applied. To date, however, such an approach has not been adopted, which means it is difficult to implement adaptive management at the regional scale. In this study, we used various situations to develop a multiple adaptive scenario system dynamics model. We then simulated a range of policy scenarios, with Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a case study. Simulation results showed that the current strategy is not sustainable and predicted that the system would exceed the environmental capacity, with risks of resource exhaustion and urban decline in 2025-2035. Five critical policy variables, including the urban population carrying capacity, rates of water consumption and water recycling, and expansion of urban land cover, were identified during sensitivity analysis. We developed and compared six socio-economic scenarios. The urban area, represented by the urban population density, seemed to transition through five different stages, namely natural growth, rapid growth, stable oscillation, fading, and rebalancing. Our scenarios suggested that different policies had different roles through each stage. The water use efficiency management policy had a comprehensive far-reaching influence on the system behavior; land urbanization management functions dominated at the start, and population capacity management was a major control in the mid-term. Our results showed that the water recycling policy and the urban population carrying capacity were extremely important, and both should be reinforced and evaluated by the local governments.
KeywordSystem dynamics model Stella Resource-based city Multiple adaptive scenarios
Indexed BySCI
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41590845] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601096] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2015M581160]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation
WOS Research AreaGeology
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000426574800006
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Cited Times:3[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorPei, Tao
Affiliation1.Beijing Union Univ, Coll Arts & Sci, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
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GB/T 7714
Liu, XiaoQian,Pei, Tao,Zhou, ChengHu,et al. A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2018,61(3):302-316.
APA Liu, XiaoQian.,Pei, Tao.,Zhou, ChengHu.,Du, YunYan.,Ma, Ting.,...&Xu, Jun.(2018).A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,61(3),302-316.
MLA Liu, XiaoQian,et al."A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 61.3(2018):302-316.
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