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Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China
Xu, Chengdong1; Xiao, Gexin2; Wang, Jinfeng1,3; Zhang, Xiangxue1,4; Liang, Jinjun5
2018
Source PublicationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
ISSN1660-4601
Volume15Issue:1Pages:12
Corresponding AuthorXu, Chengdong(xucd@lreis.ac.cn) ; Xiao, Gexin(biocomputer@126.com)
AbstractBacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery.
Keywordbacillary dysentery spatial-temporal risk meteorological factors spatial-temporal model
DOI10.3390/ijerph15010047
WOS KeywordDIARRHEAL DISEASE ; CLIMATE ; ASSOCIATION ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; VARIABLES ; NORTHERN ; BURDEN
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Science Foundation of China[41601419] ; National Science Foundation of China[41531179] ; Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China[GYHY20140616] ; Innovation Project of LREIS[O88RA205YA] ; Innovation Project of LREIS[O88RA200YA]
Funding OrganizationNational Science Foundation of China ; Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China ; Innovation Project of LREIS
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS IDWOS:000424121200047
PublisherMDPI AG
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/56991
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorXu, Chengdong; Xiao, Gexin
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.China Natl Ctr Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing 100022, Peoples R China
3.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
4.Changan Univ, Sch Earth Sci & Resources, Xian 710054, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
5.Hunan Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha 410005, Hunan, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xu, Chengdong,Xiao, Gexin,Wang, Jinfeng,et al. Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2018,15(1):12.
APA Xu, Chengdong,Xiao, Gexin,Wang, Jinfeng,Zhang, Xiangxue,&Liang, Jinjun.(2018).Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,15(1),12.
MLA Xu, Chengdong,et al."Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 15.1(2018):12.
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