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How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites
Hoffmann, M. P.1; Haakana, M.2; Asseng, S.3; Hohn, J. G.2; Palosuo, T.2; Ruiz-Ramos, M.4; Fronzek, S.5; Ewert, F.6; Gaiser, T.6; Kassie, B. T.3; Paff, K.; Rezaei, E. E.6,7; Rodriguez, A.4; Semenov, M.8; Srivastava, A. K.6; Stratonovitch, P.; Tao, F.9; Chen, Y.2,10; Roetter, R. P.1,11
2018
Source PublicationAGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
ISSN0308-521X
Volume159Pages:199-208
Corresponding AuthorHoffmann, M. P.(mhoffma@gwdg.de)
AbstractProvision of food security in the face of increasing global food demand requires narrowing of the gap between actual farmer's yield and maximum attainable yield. So far, assessments of yield gaps have focused on average yield over 5-10 years, but yield gaps can vary substantially between crop seasons. In this study we hypothesized that climate-induced inter-annual yield variability and associated risk is a major barrier for farmers to invest, i.e. increase inputs to narrow the yield gap. We evaluated the importance of inter-annual attainable yield variability for the magnitude of the yield gap by utilizing data for wheat and maize at ten sites representing some major food production systems and a large range of climate and soil conditions across the world. Yield gaps were derived from the difference of simulated attainable yields and regional recorded farmer yields for 1981 to 2010. The size of the yield gap did not correlate with the amplitude of attainable yield variability at a site, but was rather associated with the level of available resources such as labor, fertilizer and plant protection inputs. For the sites in Africa, recorded yield reached only 20% of the attainable yield, while for European, Asian and North American sites it was 56-84%. Most sites showed that the higher the attainable yield of a specific season the larger was the yield gap. This significant relationship indicated that farmers were not able to take advantage of favorable seasonal weather conditions. To reduce yield gaps in the different environments, reliable seasonal weather forecasts would be required to allow farmers to manage each seasonal potential, i.e. overcoming season-specific yield limitations.
KeywordInter-annual yield variability Yield gap analysis Wheat Maize Climate-induced risk
DOI10.1016/j.agsy.2017.03.012
WOS KeywordSEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS ; CROP SIMULATION-MODELS ; SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE ; FERTILIZER APPLICATION ; RISK-AVERSION ; MANAGEMENT ; CHINA ; WEATHER ; NITROGEN ; IMPACTS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectGerman Federal Ministry of Education and Research via the 'Limpopo Living Landscapes' project within the SPACES programme[01LL1304A] ; IMPAC<^>3 project - German Federal Ministry of Education and Research[FKZ 031A351A] ; Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (FACCE-MACSUR) ; Academy of Finland through the NORFASYS project[268277] ; Academy of Finland through the NORFASYS project[292944] ; PLUMES project[277276] ; PLUMES project[277403] ; PLUMES project[292836] ; INIA (FACCE-MACSUR) ; MULCLIVAR project (MINECO) ; German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI) ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) of the UK ; Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Project BiomassWeb of GlobeE)[FKZ031A258B]
Funding OrganizationGerman Federal Ministry of Education and Research via the 'Limpopo Living Landscapes' project within the SPACES programme ; IMPAC<^>3 project - German Federal Ministry of Education and Research ; Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (FACCE-MACSUR) ; Academy of Finland through the NORFASYS project ; PLUMES project ; INIA (FACCE-MACSUR) ; MULCLIVAR project (MINECO) ; German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI) ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) of the UK ; Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Project BiomassWeb of GlobeE)
WOS Research AreaAgriculture
WOS SubjectAgriculture, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000419415700019
PublisherELSEVIER SCI LTD
Citation statistics
Cited Times:4[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/56895
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorHoffmann, M. P.
Affiliation1.Univ Goettingen, Trop Plant Prod & Agr Syst Modelling TROPAGS, Grisebachstr 6, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany
2.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Helsinki 00790, Finland
3.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
4.Tech Univ Madrid, CEIGRAM, Madrid 28040, Spain
5.Finnish Environm Inst SYKE, Helsinki 00251, Finland
6.Univ Bonn, INRES, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany
7.Ctr Dev Res ZEF, Walter Flex Str 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany
8.Rothamsted Res, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England
9.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
10.Beijing Normal Univ, MOE Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resources Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
11.Univ Goettingen, Ctr Biodivers & Sustainable Land Use CBL, Buesgenweg 1, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Hoffmann, M. P.,Haakana, M.,Asseng, S.,et al. How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites[J]. AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,2018,159:199-208.
APA Hoffmann, M. P..,Haakana, M..,Asseng, S..,Hohn, J. G..,Palosuo, T..,...&Roetter, R. P..(2018).How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites.AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,159,199-208.
MLA Hoffmann, M. P.,et al."How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites".AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS 159(2018):199-208.
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