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Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming
Yin, Yunhe1; Ma, Danyang1,2; Wu, Shaohong1,2
2018-01-11
Source PublicationSCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN2045-2322
Volume8Pages:13
Corresponding AuthorYin, Yunhe(yinyh@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractVariations in forest net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the combined effects of key climate variables on ecosystem structure and function, especially on the carbon cycle. We performed risk analysis indicated by the magnitude of future negative anomalies in NPP in comparison with the natural interannual variability to investigate the impact of future climatic projections on forests in China. Results from the multi-model ensemble showed that climate change risk of decreases in forest NPP would be more significant in higher emission scenario in China. Under relatively low emission scenarios, the total area of risk was predicted to decline, while for RCP8.5, it was predicted to first decrease and then increase after the middle of 21st century. The rapid temperature increases predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario would be probably unfavorable for forest vegetation growth in the long term. High-level risk area was likely to increase except RCP2.6. The percentage area at high risk was predicted to increase from 5.39% (2021-2050) to 27.62% (2071-2099) under RCP8.5. Climate change risk to forests was mostly concentrated in southern subtropical and tropical regions, generally significant under high emission scenario of RCP8.5, which was mainly attributed to the intensified dryness in south China.
DOI10.1038/s41598-017-18798-6
WOS KeywordNET PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; GLOBAL VEGETATION MODEL ; TERRESTRIAL CARBON-CYCLE ; PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY ; EUROPEAN FORESTS ; PLANT GEOGRAPHY ; WORLDS FORESTS ; INVENTORY DATA ; ECOSYSTEMS ; DROUGHT
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectCultivate Project of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[TSYJS03] ; National Scientific Technical Supporting Program of China[2012BAC19B02] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571043] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41530749]
Funding OrganizationCultivate Project of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Scientific Technical Supporting Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics
WOS SubjectMultidisciplinary Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000419941000034
PublisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Citation statistics
Cited Times:2[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/56837
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorYin, Yunhe
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, 11A,Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, 19A Yuquan Rd, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yin, Yunhe,Ma, Danyang,Wu, Shaohong. Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2018,8:13.
APA Yin, Yunhe,Ma, Danyang,&Wu, Shaohong.(2018).Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,8,13.
MLA Yin, Yunhe,et al."Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 8(2018):13.
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