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Modelling the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenological trends of spring and winter wheat in China
Liu, Yujie1; Chen, Qiaomin1,2; Ge, Quansheng1; Dai, Junhu1; Qin, Ya1,3; Dai, Liang1,2; Zou, Xintong1,2; Chen, Jie1,2
2018-01-15
Source PublicationAGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
ISSN0168-1923
Volume248Pages:518-526
Corresponding AuthorLiu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Ge, Quansheng(geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractCrop phenology is co-determined by climate change and crop management. Over recent decades, climate change-related alterations in crop phenology have been observed and reported for various global crops. However, attributing changes in crop phenology to climate change is difficult, because there have been concurrent changes in crop management. In this paper, we isolated and quantified the impacts of climate change and crop management on the changes of wheat phenology in China, during the period 1981-2010, using a first difference multiple regression model. Our results shows: (1) based on observed phenological data, In spring/winter wheat, the mean sowing and emergence date were delayed by 0.91/2.29 and 0.39/0.73 days decade(-1); mean anthesis and maturity date advanced by 1.05/2.28 and 0.01/1.42 days decade(-1); mean length of vegetative growth period (VGP) and whole growth period (WGP) were shortened by 1.09/2.86 and 0.89/3.69 days decade(-1); mean length of reproductive growth period (RGP) was prolonged by 0.55/0.61 days decade(-1). (2) At most stations, changing direction of wheat phenology affected by isolated impacts of climate change or crop management was consistent with that affected by combined impacts of climate change and crop management. (3) For observed trends of most phenological stages and growth periods, relative contribution from climate change was smaller than from crop management, and average temperature contributed the most among the three contributors (average temperature, cumulative precipitation, and cumulative sunshine hours) to isolated impacts of climate change on wheat phenology. (4) Crop management over the three decades was shown to have helped reduce the lengths of VGP and WGP, but increase the length of RGP for both spring and winter wheat, implying that shorter-duration varieties with a higher yield or better yield stability in changing climate might have been introduced by farmers.
KeywordChina Climate change Crop management Crop modelling Wheat phenology
DOI10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.09.008
WOS KeywordNORTHEAST CHINA ; GROWING-SEASON ; LOESS PLATEAU ; DAY LENGTH ; LATE RICE ; TEMPERATURE ; GROWTH ; YIELD ; PLAIN ; CULTIVARS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41671037] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41301091] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; CAS[QYZDB-SSW-DQC005] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS[2016049]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; CAS ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS
WOS Research AreaAgriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectAgronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000417659700046
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Cited Times:13[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/56797
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorLiu, Yujie; Ge, Quansheng
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Xian Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Surveying & Mapping Sci & Technol, Xian 710054, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Yujie,Chen, Qiaomin,Ge, Quansheng,et al. Modelling the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenological trends of spring and winter wheat in China[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2018,248:518-526.
APA Liu, Yujie.,Chen, Qiaomin.,Ge, Quansheng.,Dai, Junhu.,Qin, Ya.,...&Chen, Jie.(2018).Modelling the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenological trends of spring and winter wheat in China.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,248,518-526.
MLA Liu, Yujie,et al."Modelling the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenological trends of spring and winter wheat in China".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 248(2018):518-526.
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