IGSNRR OpenIR
Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China
Zhao, Qi1; Li, Shanshan1; Cao, Wei2; Liu, De-Li3; Qian, Quan4; Ren, Hongyan2; Ding, Fan5; Williams, Gail6; Huxley, Rachel7; Zhang, Wenyi4; Guo, Yuming1
2018-04-01
Source PublicationENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES
ISSN0091-6765
Volume126Issue:4Pages:11
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Wenyi(zwy0419@126.com) ; Guo, Yuming(Yuming.Guo@monash.edu)
AbstractBACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China. OBJECTIVES: We examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s. METHODS: Data on daily HFMD (children 0-14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009-2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of I-IFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-WA/1D associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions. RESULTS: During 2009-2014, > 11 million HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately 20 degrees C, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of I-IFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): -13.5%, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI: 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HEM") may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China. CONCLUSION: Our estimates suggest that the association between temperature and MAID varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0-14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends.
DOI10.1289/EHP3062
WOS KeywordEMERGENCY-DEPARTMENT VISITS ; TIME-SERIES ; CHILDHOOD HAND ; INFECTIOUS-DISEASE ; SHANDONG PROVINCE ; RISK-FACTORS ; IMPACT ; HERPANGINA ; MORTALITY ; DYNAMICS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Mega Project for the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases[2018ZX10713003] ; Monash Graduate Scholarship and the Monash International Postgraduate Research Scholarship ; Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC)[APP1109193] ; seed funding from the NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence Centre for Air Quality and Health Research and Evaluation[APP1030259] ; Career Development Fellowship of the Australian NHMRC[APP1107107]
Funding OrganizationNational Mega Project for the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases ; Monash Graduate Scholarship and the Monash International Postgraduate Research Scholarship ; Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) ; seed funding from the NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence Centre for Air Quality and Health Research and Evaluation ; Career Development Fellowship of the Australian NHMRC
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology
WOS IDWOS:000431396900014
PublisherUS DEPT HEALTH HUMAN SCIENCES PUBLIC HEALTH SCIENCE
Citation statistics
Cited Times:5[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/55072
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Wenyi; Guo, Yuming
Affiliation1.Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.New South Wales Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia
4.Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Ctr Dis Surveillance & Res, Inst Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Publ Hlth Emergency Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
6.Univ Queensland, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol & Biostat, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
7.La Trobe Univ, Coll Sci Hlth & Engn, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao, Qi,Li, Shanshan,Cao, Wei,et al. Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,2018,126(4):11.
APA Zhao, Qi.,Li, Shanshan.,Cao, Wei.,Liu, De-Li.,Qian, Quan.,...&Guo, Yuming.(2018).Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,126(4),11.
MLA Zhao, Qi,et al."Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China".ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 126.4(2018):11.
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