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Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China
Xie, Ping1,2; Wu, Ziyi1; Sang, Yan-Fang3,4; Gu, Haiting1; Zhao, Yuxi1; Singh, Vijay P.5,6
2018-05-01
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN0022-1694
Volume560Pages:451-460
Corresponding AuthorSang, Yan-Fang(sangyf@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractAbrupt changes are an important manifestation of hydrological variability. How to accurately detect the abrupt changes in hydrological time series and evaluate their significance is an important issue, but methods for dealing with them effectively are lacking. In this study, we propose an approach to evaluate the significance of abrupt changes in time series at five levels: no, weak, moderate, strong, and dramatic. The approach was based on an index of correlation coefficient calculated for the original time series and its abrupt change component. A bigger value of correlation coefficient reflects a higher significance level of abrupt change. Results of Monte-Carlo experiments verified the reliability of the proposed approach, and also indicated the great influence of statistical characteristics of time series on the significance level of abrupt change. The approach was derived from the relationship between correlation coefficient index and abrupt change, and can estimate and grade the significance levels of abrupt changes in hydrological time series. Application of the proposed approach to ten major watersheds in China showed that abrupt changes mainly occurred in five watersheds in northern China, which have arid or semi-arid climate and severe shortages of water resources. Runoff processes in northern China were more sensitive to precipitation change than those in southern China. Although annual precipitation and surface water resources amount (SWRA) exhibited a harmonious relationship in most watersheds, abrupt changes in the latter were more significant. Compared with abrupt changes in annual precipitation, human activities contributed much more to the abrupt changes in the corresponding SWRA, except for the Northwest Inland River watershed. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordHydrological variability Abrupt change Detection and attribution Significance evaluation Rainfall-runoff relationship Water resources utility
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.036
WOS KeywordCHANGE-POINT ANALYSIS ; PAST 50 YEARS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RIVER-BASIN ; TIME-SERIES ; WATER-RESOURCES ; TEMPORAL TREND ; STREAMFLOW ; CATCHMENT ; VARIABILITY
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[91547205] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91647110] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51579181] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2017074] ; National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project[SHZH-391 IWHR-57]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS ; National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectEngineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000430882300034
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/55016
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorSang, Yan-Fang
Affiliation1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Collaborat Innovat Ctr Terr Sovereignty & Maritim, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
4.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
5.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, 321 Scoates Hall,2117 TAMU, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
6.Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, 321 Scoates Hall,2117 TAMU, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xie, Ping,Wu, Ziyi,Sang, Yan-Fang,et al. Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2018,560:451-460.
APA Xie, Ping,Wu, Ziyi,Sang, Yan-Fang,Gu, Haiting,Zhao, Yuxi,&Singh, Vijay P..(2018).Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,560,451-460.
MLA Xie, Ping,et al."Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 560(2018):451-460.
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