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Assessment of droughts and wheat yield loss on the North China Plain with an aggregate drought index (ADI) approach
Wang, Sisi1,2; Mo, Xingguo1,3; Hu, Shi1; Liu, Suxia1,3; Liu, Zhengjia1
2018-04-01
Source PublicationECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
ISSN1470-160X
Volume87Pages:107-116
Corresponding AuthorMo, Xingguo(moxg@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractFrequent drought events are threatening regional/global food security. However, current models for predicting crop yield loss suffered from drought threat is still limited. In this study, seven drought indices were employed to develop an aggregate drought index (ADI) to quantify the drought effect on crop yield in the North China Plain (NCP). Based on time-series and panel regression models, relationships between climatic yield anomalies of winter wheat (Delta Y) and ADI values before sowing of winter wheat and during its growth were investigated. Results showed that ADI assembled the advantages of drought indices and reasonably described the range, severity and duration of drought events. During the study period, trends of annual ADI displayed remarkable spatial heterogeneity in the growth stages. Increasing trends of ADI over 0.005/year were found in most areas of NCP at STAGE 1 (from July to September in last year). At STAGE 4 (from grain-filling to maturation), increasing and decreasing trends were observed in northern and southern NCP, respectively. Based on panel model, ADI in the four stages could predict about 20% variations of Delta Y in areas with high irrigation supplies. Meanwhile, more than 40% variations of Delta Y may be predicted in eastern NCP with low irrigation supplies. The study highlights the importance of integrating drought information and irrigation for assessment of winter wheat yield variations.
KeywordDrought indices Winter wheat Yield loss Panel regression model North China Plain
DOI10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.12.047
WOS KeywordGREEN-UP DATE ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; SEVERITY INDEX ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TIME-SERIES ; PRECIPITATION ; RETRIEVALS ; MANAGEMENT ; PHENOLOGY ; RESPONSES
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNatural Science Foundation of China[41471026] ; State's Key Project of Research and Development Plan[2016YFC0401402]
Funding OrganizationNatural Science Foundation of China ; State's Key Project of Research and Development Plan
WOS Research AreaBiodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectBiodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000430761100012
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54979
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorMo, Xingguo
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Sinodanish Ctr, Beijing 10049, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Sisi,Mo, Xingguo,Hu, Shi,et al. Assessment of droughts and wheat yield loss on the North China Plain with an aggregate drought index (ADI) approach[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2018,87:107-116.
APA Wang, Sisi,Mo, Xingguo,Hu, Shi,Liu, Suxia,&Liu, Zhengjia.(2018).Assessment of droughts and wheat yield loss on the North China Plain with an aggregate drought index (ADI) approach.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,87,107-116.
MLA Wang, Sisi,et al."Assessment of droughts and wheat yield loss on the North China Plain with an aggregate drought index (ADI) approach".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 87(2018):107-116.
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