Global land surface air temperature dynamics since 1880
Wang, Jinfeng1; Xu, Chengdong1; Hu, Maogui1; Li, Qingxiang2; Yan, Zhongwei3; Jones, Phil4,5
Corresponding AuthorWang, Jinfeng(wangjf@lreis.ac.cn)
AbstractThe geographical extent, magnitude, and uncertainty of global climate change have been widely discussed and have critical policy implications at both global and local scales. In this study, a new analysis of annual mean global land surface air temperature since 1880 was generated, which has greater coverage and lower uncertainty than previous distributions. The Biased Sentinel Hospitals Areal Disease Estimation (BSHADE) method, used in this study, makes a best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) when a sample is small and biased to a spatially heterogeneous population. For the period of 1901-2010, the warming trend was found to be 0.109 degrees C decade(-1) with 95% confidence intervals between 0.081 degrees C and 0.137 degrees C. Additionally, warming exhibited different spatial patterns in different periods. In the early 20th century (1923-1950), warming occurred mainly in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, whereas in the most recent decades (1977-2014), warming was more spatially extensive across the global land surface. Compared with other common methods, the difference in results appears in the areas with few stations and in the early years, when stations had sparse coverage and were unevenly distributed. Validation, which was performed using real data that simulated the historic situation, showed a smaller error in the BSHADE estimate than in other methods. This study produced a new database with greater coverage and less uncertainty that will improve the understanding of climate dynamics on the Earth since 1880, especially in isolated areas and early periods, and will benefit the assessment of climate-change-related issues, such as the effects of human activities.
Keywordglobal land surface air temperature dynamics biased observations best linear unbiased estimate (BLUE)
Indexed BySCI
Funding ProjectChinese Academy of Sciences[XDA05090102] ; Ministry of Science and Technology of China[2016YFC1302504] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41531179] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41421001] ; CAS President's International Fellowship Initiative[2015DE016]
Funding OrganizationChinese Academy of Sciences ; Ministry of Science and Technology of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; CAS President's International Fellowship Initiative
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000431999600032
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Cited Times:4[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorWang, Jinfeng
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, A11,Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, START Reg Ctr Temperate East Asia, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Univ East Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich, Norfolk, England
5.King Abdulaziz Univ, Dept Meteorol, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Jinfeng,Xu, Chengdong,Hu, Maogui,et al. Global land surface air temperature dynamics since 1880[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38:E466-E474.
APA Wang, Jinfeng,Xu, Chengdong,Hu, Maogui,Li, Qingxiang,Yan, Zhongwei,&Jones, Phil.(2018).Global land surface air temperature dynamics since 1880.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38,E466-E474.
MLA Wang, Jinfeng,et al."Global land surface air temperature dynamics since 1880".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38(2018):E466-E474.
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