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Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement
Wang, Fang1; Tokarska, Katarzyna B.2; Zhang, Jintao3; Ge, Quansheng3; Hao, Zhixin3; Zhang, Xuezhen3; Wu, Maowei3
2018
Source PublicationADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY
ISSN1687-9309
Pages9
Corresponding AuthorWang, Fang(wangf@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractTo limit global warming to well below 2 degrees C in accord with the Paris Agreement, countries throughout the world have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the next few decades. However, it remains unclear what the resulting climate change is in response to the proposed INDCs and subsequent emission reductions. In this study, the global and regional warming under the updated INDC scenarios was estimated from a range of comprehensive Earth system models (CMIP5) and a simpler carbon-climate model (MAGICC), based on the relationship of climate response to cumulative emissions.) The global GHG emissions under the updated INDC pledges are estimated to reach 14.2 similar to 15.0 GtC/year in 2030, resulting in a global mean temperature increase of 1.29 similar to 1.55 degrees C (median of 1.41 degrees C)above the preindustrial level. By extending the INDC scenarios to 2100, global GHG emissions are estimated to be around 6.4 similar to 9.0 GtC/year in 2100, resulting in a global mean temperature increase by 2.67 similar to 3.74 degrees C (median of 3.17 degrees C). The Arctic warming is projected to be most profound, exceeding the global average by a factor of three by the end of this century.) us, climate warming under INDC scenarios is projected to greatly exceed the long-term Paris Agreement goal of stabilizing the global mean temperature at to a low level of 1.5-2.0 degrees C above the pre-industrial. Our study suggests that the INDC emission commitments need to be adjusted and strengthened to bridge this warming gap.
DOI10.1155/2018/2487962
WOS Keyword2 DEGREES-C ; CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS ; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN ; SIMPLER MODEL ; CYCLE MODELS ; SCENARIOS ; POLICY ; CMIP5
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602704] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771050] ; CAS Key Project[KJZD-EW-TZ-G10] ; Ministry of Science and Technology
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; CAS Key Project ; Ministry of Science and Technology
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000432777100001
PublisherHINDAWI LTD
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54909
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorWang, Fang
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Dept Climate & Environm Change, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Victoria, Sch Earth & Ocean Sci, 3800 Finnerty Rd, Victoria, BC V8W 3V6, Canada
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Dept Climate & Environm Change, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Fang,Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,Zhang, Jintao,et al. Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement[J]. ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY,2018:9.
APA Wang, Fang.,Tokarska, Katarzyna B..,Zhang, Jintao.,Ge, Quansheng.,Hao, Zhixin.,...&Wu, Maowei.(2018).Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement.ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY,9.
MLA Wang, Fang,et al."Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement".ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY (2018):9.
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