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Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change
Hundessa, Samuel1; Williams, Gail1; Li, Shanshan2; Liu, De Li3; Cao, Wei4; Ren, Hongyan4; Guo, Jinpeng5; Gasparrini, Antonio6; Ebi, Kristie7; Zhang, Wenyi5; Guo, Yuming2
2018-06-15
Source PublicationSCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN0048-9697
Volume627Pages:1285-1293
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Wenyi(zhangwenyi@bmi.ac.cn) ; Guo, Yuming(yuming.guo@monash.edu)
AbstractBackground: Global climate change is likely to increase the geographic range and seasonality of malaria transmission. Areas suitable for distribution of malaria vectors are predicted to increase with climate change but evidence is limited on future distribution of malaria with climate in China. Objective: Our aim was to assess a potential effect of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) and Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) malaria under climate change scenarios. Methods: National malaria surveillance data during 2005-2014 were integrated with corresponding climate data to model current weather-malaria relationship. We used the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) with a spatial component, assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution and including an offset for the population while accounting for potential non-linearity and long-term trend. The association was applied to future climate to project county-level malaria distribution using ensembles of Global Climate Models under two climate scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results: Climate change could substantially increase P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria, under both climate scenarios, but by larger amount under RCP8.5, compared to the baseline. P. falciparumis projected to increase more than P. vivax. The distributions of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria are expected to increase in most regions regardless of the climate scenarios. A high percentage (>50%) increases are projected in some counties of the northwest, north, northeast, including northern tip of the northeast China, with a clearer spatial change for P. vivax than P. falciparum under both scenarios, highlighting potential changes in the latitudinal extent of the malaria. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that spatial and temporal distribution of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China will change due to future climate change, if there is no policy to mitigate it. These findings are important to guide the malaria elimination goal for China. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordP. vivax P. falciparum Climate Malaria RCP Scenario
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.300
WOS KeywordGENERALIZED ADDITIVE-MODELS ; EAST-AFRICAN HIGHLANDS ; ANOPHELES-STEPHENSI ; PREDICTING MALARIA ; DENGUE-FEVER ; TEMPERATURE ; TRANSMISSION ; PRECIPITATION ; ELIMINATION ; SCENARIOS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectCareer Development Fellowship of Australian National Health and Medical Research Council[APP1107107]
Funding OrganizationCareer Development Fellowship of Australian National Health and Medical Research Council
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000431848500121
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Cited Times:2[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54829
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Wenyi; Guo, Yuming
Affiliation1.Univ Queensland, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol & Biostat, Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia
2.Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Level 2,553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia
3.Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Inst Dis Control & Prevent PLA, 20 Dong Da Street, Beijing 100071, Peoples R China
6.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Social & Environm Hlth Res, 15-17 Tavistock Pl, London WC1H 9SH, England
7.Univ Washington, Dept Global Hlth, Seattle, WA 98105 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Hundessa, Samuel,Williams, Gail,Li, Shanshan,et al. Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2018,627:1285-1293.
APA Hundessa, Samuel.,Williams, Gail.,Li, Shanshan.,Liu, De Li.,Cao, Wei.,...&Guo, Yuming.(2018).Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,627,1285-1293.
MLA Hundessa, Samuel,et al."Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 627(2018):1285-1293.
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