IGSNRR OpenIR
Using a Bayesian belief network model for early warning of death and severe risk of HFMD in Hunan province, China
Liao, Yilan1,2; Xu, Bing1,3,6; Liu, Xiaochi1,4; Wang, Jinfeng1,2; Hu, Shixiong5; Huang, Wei5; Luo, Kaiwei5; Gao, Lidong5
2018-06-01
Source PublicationSTOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
ISSN1436-3240
Volume32Issue:6Pages:1531-1544
Corresponding AuthorLiao, Yilan(liaoyl@lreis.ac.cn) ; Gao, Lidong(810173358@qq.com)
AbstractHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a global infectious disease resulting in millions of cases and even hundreds of deaths. Although a newly developed formalin-inactivated EV71 (FI-EV71) vaccine is effective against EV71, which is a major pathogen for HFMD, no vaccine against HFMD itself has yet been developed. Therefore, establishing a sensitive and accurate early warning system for HFMD is important. The early warning model for HFMD in the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System combines control chart and spatial statistics models to detect spatiotemporal abnormal aggregations of morbidity. However, that type of early warning for HFMD just involves retrospective analysis. In this study, we apply a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to estimate the increased risk of death and severe HFMD in the next month based on pathogen detection and environmental factors. Hunan province, one of the regions with the highest prevalence of HFMD in China, was selected as the study area. The results showed that compared with the traditional early warning model for HFMD, the proposed method can achieve a very high performance evaluation (the average AUC tests were more than 0.92). The model is also simple and easy to operate. Once the structure of the BBN is established, the increased risk of death and severe HFMD in the next month can be estimated based on any one node in the BBN.
KeywordHand, foot, and mouth disease Early warning Spatiotemporal abnormal aggregation Moving percentile method Bayesian belief network
DOI10.1007/s00477-018-1547-8
WOS KeywordMOUTH-DISEASE ; FOOT ; HAND ; SURVEILLANCE ; OUTBREAK ; SYSTEM
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41471377] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41531179] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41421001] ; Featured Institute Construction Services Program of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS[TSYJS03] ; Project Coupling big data and sampling for spatial mapping - LREIS[088RA200YA] ; Scientific research project - Chinese Preventive Medicine Association[20101801]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Featured Institute Construction Services Program of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS ; Project Coupling big data and sampling for spatial mapping - LREIS ; Scientific research project - Chinese Preventive Medicine Association
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectEngineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000432784400005
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Cited Times:2[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54779
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorLiao, Yilan; Gao, Lidong
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Key Lab Surveillance & Early Warning Infect Dis, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sinodanish Coll, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
4.China Univ Geosci, Sch Informat Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
5.Hunan Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha 410005, Hunan, Peoples R China
6.Sinodanish Ctr Educ & Res, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liao, Yilan,Xu, Bing,Liu, Xiaochi,et al. Using a Bayesian belief network model for early warning of death and severe risk of HFMD in Hunan province, China[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2018,32(6):1531-1544.
APA Liao, Yilan.,Xu, Bing.,Liu, Xiaochi.,Wang, Jinfeng.,Hu, Shixiong.,...&Gao, Lidong.(2018).Using a Bayesian belief network model for early warning of death and severe risk of HFMD in Hunan province, China.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,32(6),1531-1544.
MLA Liao, Yilan,et al."Using a Bayesian belief network model for early warning of death and severe risk of HFMD in Hunan province, China".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 32.6(2018):1531-1544.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Liao, Yilan]'s Articles
[Xu, Bing]'s Articles
[Liu, Xiaochi]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Liao, Yilan]'s Articles
[Xu, Bing]'s Articles
[Liu, Xiaochi]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Liao, Yilan]'s Articles
[Xu, Bing]'s Articles
[Liu, Xiaochi]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.